394
AXNT20 KNHC 032241
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN OCT 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2240 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
77W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. THE WAVE
APPEARS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC TROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N23W TO
09N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N50W TO 09N60W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
GULF REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND RUNS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS TO EXIST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY MODERATE, EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SEAS ARE
IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST GULF OFF
THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT, THEN ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO VERACRUZ
THROUGH TUE. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH LATE SUN, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE
TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONT, WHICH WILL STALL
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MID WEEK. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH FRESH TO
STRONG NW TO N WINDS POSSIBLE OFF VERACRUZ THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING
THE GREATER ANTILLES, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND PARTS OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA, COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, WITH FRESH WINDS
PULSING OFF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT. THESE
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY MID WEEK, AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH FRESH WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO
PULSE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRI.
OF NOTE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, MAINLY
OVER HAITI AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN TOWARD HISPANIOLA AND DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR
THE ISLAND BY SUN. THIS COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
LOCAL EFFECTS AS DAYTIME HEATING, LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN
UPSLOPE LIFTING WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS MORE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA, AND EXTENDS FROM 28N63W TO 20N70W.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1021 MB IS LOCATED NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N63W.
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, INCLUDING
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE NE OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EVIDENT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, AND IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST
WATERS IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS FEATURE AND A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER NW AFRICA SUPPORTS FRESH
NE WINDS OFFSHORE WESTERN SAHARA AND SOUTHERN MOROCCO, INCLUDING
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITHIN THESE WIND
SPEEDS. ELSEWHERE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL WITH MODERATE
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY
FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT STAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF FAR NE
FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
GR
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