678
AXNT20 KNHC 041050
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN OCT 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTEND
FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W,
SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N22W TO 08N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N30W
TO 07N45W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 13W
AND 31W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MOISTURE INFLOW BY SE
FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ALONG THE E MEXICO OFFSHORES AND OVER THE NW GULF BEHIND
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N91W TO JUST NE
OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING OVER THE NE
GULF OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH NNE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE BEHIND THE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL FOLLOW A TROUGH
ALONG THE E MEXICAN COAST TO VERACRUZ THROUGH TUE. A RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE INTO MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING FRONT,
WHICH WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. FRESH NE TO E
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST N OF THE FRONT, WITH FRESH TO
STRONG NW TO N WINDS POSSIBLE OFF VERACRUZ THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS WHILE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
SEAS ARE MODERATE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN AND SLIGHT ELSEWHERE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NE OF HISPANIOLA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ADJACENT
WATERS AND SOUTHERN HAITI. OTHERWISE, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND A TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORT SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
CENTRAL BASIN AND THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA ADJACENT WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE MORNING, EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WHERE FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT, AND
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG
WILL PULSE AT NIGHT THROUGH MON. AFTERWARD, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE REGION, FURTHER LOWERING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN. OTHERWISE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY, MAINLY OVER HAITI AND
WESTERN HISPANIOLA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS AS
DAYTIME HEATING, LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING,
WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NNE OF BERMUDA
AND A 1024 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N45W EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THERE IS A WEAKENESS IN THE RIDGE
BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ADJACENT WATERS WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE LIKELY HIGHER IN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFF THE
NE FLORIDA COAST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT
STAY OVER THE NE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF NE FLORIDA
THROUGH WED. GENTLE TO MODERATE AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE.
RAMOS
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