798
AXNT20 KNHC 042304
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON OCT 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MON
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
BRING A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OVER PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
81W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 17.5N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N26W
TO 06N37W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N37W TO 10N50W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 16W AND
30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF GENERATING SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
FOLLOW THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB IS ANALYZED
NEAR 21.5N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
NORTHWARD TO NEAR 27N96W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG W TO NW WINDS
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AXIS AND THE COAST OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NE GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL FOLLOW A TROUGH
ALONG THE E MEXICAN COAST TO VERACRUZ THROUGH TUE. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE INTO MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT, WHICH WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. FRESH NE
TO E WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST N OF THE FRONT, WITH
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS POSSIBLE OFF VERACRUZ
WEST OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MON. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF AMERICA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE, SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
EASTERN CUBA, HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER HISPANIOLA IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA, COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE MORNING, EXCEPT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE AT NIGHT
THROUGH MON. AFTERWARD, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF THE REGION, FURTHER WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN AREA OF SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED N OF
PUERTO RICO, AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND EXTENDS FROM
31N32W TO 28N36W TO 29N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST
WATERS IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA
BY MID WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT, BUT REMAIN OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH WED. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
GR
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