315
AXNT20 KNHC 050500
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON OCT 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO
19N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
83W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N40W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N40W TO 11N53W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 15N AND E OF 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OF
1010 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 22N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO THE BIG BEND OF FL. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG W TO NW
WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AXIS AND THE COAST OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE NE GULF. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO FLORIDA IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
TROUGH ALONG THE E MEXICAN OFFSHORES THROUGH TUE. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E THROUGH LATE TUE
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING FRONT, WHICH WILL STALL OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST N OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD, BROAD
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST GULF WED NIGHT
INTO THU. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE, SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN
GULF DURING THAT PERIOD.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA IS
HELPING TO INDUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THESE REGIONS. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA, COMBINED WITH THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE SEAS. LOCALLY
STRONG TRADES ARE SEEN OFFSHORE NW COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE MORNING, EXCEPT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG
SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH MON. AFTERWARD, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE REGION, FURTHER WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
AN AREA OF SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED N OF
PUERTO RICO, AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND EXTENDS FROM
31N32W TO 28N38W TO 29N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS IS
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE SEEN SW OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO NE
FLORIDA BY MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT REMAIN OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH WED. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH
FRI.
ADAMS
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