120
AXNT20 KNHC 051022
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON OCT 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1010 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 21N
BETWEEN 49W AND 62W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
84W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. A FEW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE OVER THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N34W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N40W TO 09N54W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 14W AND 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO SE LOUISIANA
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS TO A 1011 MB
LOW OFFSHORE TAMPICO, WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NE MEXICO OFFSHORES.
SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE NE GULF AND ALONG THE NW GULF
COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS WHILE MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTAL AND SE GULF. RECENT ALTIMETER
AND BUOY DATA SHOW 2 TO 5 FT SEAS BASIN WIDE, LIKELY HIGHER IN THE
AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
TROUGH ALONG THE E MEXICAN OFFSHORES THROUGH TUE. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH LATE TUE
AHEAD OF A FRONT STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY THROUGH WED
BEFORE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN WED NIGHT. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST N OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD, BROAD
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST GULF TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE SECOND HALF
OF THIS WEEK WHILE IT INITIALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF GULF WED
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THE
LEE SIDE OF E CUBA ADJACENT WATERS AND THE SW BASIN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE MODERATE TO 7
FT WHILE SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE MORNING, EXCEPT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE FRESH WINDS WILL LIKELY PULSE TO
STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE REGION, FURTHER WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TO THE SE OF BERMUDA THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH SPEED FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS IS DOMINATED BY
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AZORES, WHICH
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS. OTHERWISE, THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N32W TO 27N39W TO 29N44W. SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO NE
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT REMAIN OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH WED
NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. OTHERWISE, BY FRI EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING SE OF BERMUDA AND SHIFTING WESTWARD WILL INCREASE
EASTERLY WINDS S OF 22N TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS.
RAMOS
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