288
AXNT20 KNHC 051751
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON OCT 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1751 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA (AL92):
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE,
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, BUT
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM. FORMATION
CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS IS HIGH.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 56W AND 61W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
84.5W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. A FEW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N41W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N41W TO 11N55W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08.5N TO 19N AND EAST OF 34W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON AL92.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM BILOXI, MISSISSIPPI TO SE
LOUISIANA TO PORT MANSFIELD, TEXAS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS TO 19.5N94.5W,
WHICH IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF 90.5W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OVER THE NE GULF
COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE NW GULF COASTAL WATERS, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE WEST OF THE TROUGH. SEAS WITHIN THESE WINDS ARE 4 TO 6 FT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE
GULF ALONG WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
TROUGH ALONG THE E MEXICAN OFFSHORES THROUGH TUE. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
TUE AHEAD OF A FRONT STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY THROUGH
WED BEFORE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN WED NIGHT. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST N OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD, GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY, AND A A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF GULF WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, THE
LEE SIDE OF E CUBA ADJACENT WATERS AND THE SW BASIN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NORTH OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS WITHIN THE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE
MODERATE TO 7 FT, WHILE SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE MORNING, EXCEPT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE FRESH WINDS WILL LIKELY PULSE TO
STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE REGION, FURTHER WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TO THE SE OF BERMUDA THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH SPEED FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS, INCLUDING THE GREAT BAHAMA
BANK. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS IS DOMINATED
BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AZORES,
WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE, THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT ARE ANALYZED AS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N33W TO 27N35.5W TO 27N46W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ALONG
THE TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION DEPICTED NORTH OF 26.5N
BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT, BUT REMAIN OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI.
OTHERWISE, BY FRI EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING SE OF BERMUDA
AND SHIFTING WESTWARD WILL INCREASE TRADES S OF 22N TO MODERATE TO
FRESH SPEEDS.
KRV
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