947
AXNT20 KNHC 052037
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE OCT 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA (INVEST AL92): A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BEFORE IT
TURNS NORTHWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC
IMPACTS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, BUT INTERESTS THERE SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORMATION CHANCE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEXT SEVEN DAY IS HIGH.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 56W AND 62W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
85W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC AT 17N16W AND EXTENDS TO
07N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N40W TO 10N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON INVEST AL92.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA NEAR 30N84W TO
28N93W, WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT AND REACHES TO THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR 26N97W. FARTHER SOUTH A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N92W TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE (INVEST AL92) NEAR
22N96W TO 19N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
20N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FRONT ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO AS FAR SOUTH AS
VERACRUZ. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE
3-5 FT OFF TEXAS, AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
TROUGH ALONG THE E MEXICAN OFFSHORES THROUGH TUE. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
TUE AHEAD OF A FRONT STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY THROUGH
WED BEFORE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN WED NIGHT. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST N OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD, GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY, AND A A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
MIDDLE OR LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF GULF WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER JAMAICA IS
SUPPORTING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HAITI,
JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS SOUTH OF HAITI TO 15N.
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH E
WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AS NOTED IN RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS
INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT OFF COLOMBIA IN THIS AREA. MOSTLY MODERATE
E TO SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS TO 7 FT ARE LIKELY ONGOING OVER
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD AND NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS, WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE MORNING, EXCEPT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE FRESH WINDS WILL LIKELY PULSE TO
STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE REGION, FURTHER WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TO THE SE OF BERMUDA THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH SPEED FRI, THEN MODERATE
TO FRESH FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OFF JACKSONVILLE,
FLORIDA, ALONG A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 31N79W TO 30N81W. RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, ANCHORED BY 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR
31N58W. THE PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
AND 3-5 FT WEST OF 50W, EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF FRESH WINDS AND 7 FT
SEAS EAST OF MARTINIQUE. FARTHER EAST, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG A TROUGH REACHING FROM WEAK 1014
MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N35W TO 26N40W. THIS IS BREAKING UP THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORMALLY IN PLACE THERE, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN SOUTH OF 31N AND EAST
OF 50W, WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE, STALLING FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT, REMAINING OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH WED NIGHT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE
THROUGH FRI. OTHERWISE, BY FRI EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SE OF BERMUDA AND SHIFTING WESTWARD WILL INCREASE TRADES S OF 22N
TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, CONTINUING SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
CHRISTENSEN
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