881
AXNT20 KNHC 060558
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE OCT 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA (INVEST AL92):
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST, BUT INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS ARE HIGH.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 55W AND 62W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING FRESH TO STRONG E
WINDS ACROSS AND IN BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
86W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE OVER GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC AT 15N17W AND EXTENDS TO
06N43W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N43W TO 10N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 07N TO 15N AND E OF 38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON INVEST AL92.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF TO THE COASTAL BORDER OF THE UNITED STATES AND
MEXICO. A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE, WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND NEAR EACH OF THESE FEATURES.
MODERATE TO FRESH, LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE N
AND W OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
TROUGH ALONG THE E MEXICAN OFFSHORES THROUGH TUE. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
TUE AHEAD OF A FRONT STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED
BEFORE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN WED NIGHT. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST N OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD, GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW E OF TAMPICO IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, AND A A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF GULF WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MARINERS
SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BROAD RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE
WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AS NOTED IN
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. MOSTLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE MORNING, EXCEPT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE FRESH WINDS WILL LIKELY PULSE TO
STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE REGION, FURTHER WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TO THE SE OF BERMUDA THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH SPEED FRI, THEN MODERATE
TO FRESH FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING OFF THE NE FL COAST SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FL
COAST. IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ATLANTIC, A SURFACE TROUGH SW OF
THE AZORES IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE,
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. E WINDS ARE FRESH
TO STRONG E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE, STALLING FROM BERMUDA TO NE
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, REMAINING OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH WED
NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. OTHERWISE, BY FRI EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING SE OF BERMUDA AND SHIFTING WESTWARD WILL INCREASE
TRADES S OF 22N TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, CONTINUING SAT AND
SAT NIGHT.
ADAMS
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