423
AXNT20 KNHC 061058
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE OCT 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA (INVEST AL92):
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF GULF WED THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 20N TO
25N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CHANCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE HIGH.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 63W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. THE WAVE IS ALSO
ENHANCING FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES
AND ADJACENT WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND EXTENDS TO
12N30W TO 07N44W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N44W TO 10N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN
16W AND 38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON INVEST AL92.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO JUST N OF TAMPA
BAY WHERE IT STALLS TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W TO 28N94W TO
25N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES FROM THE TAIL OF THE FRONT
ALONG THE E MEXICO OFFSHORES TO INVEST AL92 LOW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS
DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. STRONG CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF AL92 SUGGEST
STRONGER GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, AHEAD
OF THESE BOUNDARIES, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER, AND SEAS SLIGHT
TO MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
TROUGH ALONG THE E MEXICAN OFFSHORES THROUGH TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED
BEFORE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN WED NIGHT. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST N OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD, GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW NE OF TAMPICO IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, AND A
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE MIDDLE OR
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF GULF WED
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEING SUPPORTED BY WEAK 1017 MB HIGH TO THE SE
OF BERMUDA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE FAR E BASIN
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT
WATERS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE OFFSHORE PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E EXTENSION OF THE
PACIFIC MONSOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING SE OF BERMUDA WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE REGION, FURTHER WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP
TO THE SE OF BERMUDA THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE EASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH SPEED FRI, THEN MODERATE
TO FRESH FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR 30N73W AND EXTENDS TO 30N79W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO CAPE CANAVERAL,
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG WITH FRESH NE
WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER SUBTROPICAL WATERS, PROVIDING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE AREA TODAY, THEN STALL
FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, REMAINING OFF NE
FLORIDA THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. BY FRI EVENING, HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING SE OF BERMUDA AND SHIFTING WESTWARD WILL
INCREASE TRADES S OF 22N TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, CONTINUING
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS AGAIN OFF NE FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AS A LOW PRESSURE,
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE, MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA.
RAMOS
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