691
AXNT20 KNHC 061641
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE OCT 6 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA (INVEST AL92):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA NEAR 22N96W. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF
GULF WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. CHANCES OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE HIGH.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS NEAR 64.5W,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.
THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS, AS NOTED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA.
A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS NEAR
18W, EXTENDING FROM 06N TO 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W AND EXTENDS TO
14.5N27W TO 07.5N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07.5N40W TO 06N46W TO
10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 08N TO 17N
BETWEEN 23W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON INVEST AL92.
A 1008 LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 29.5N86.5W,
AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA, AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
2 TO 4 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THESE FEATURES. THE
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST,
PARALLELING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
THEN CONTINUES FROM THE TAIL OF THE FRONT ALONG THE E MEXICO
OFFSHORES TO INVEST AL92 LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE TO NW WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH
AND WEST OF THESE FEATURES, JUST OFFSHORE OF TEXAS AND EASTERN
MEXICO. STRONG CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF AL92 ALSO SUGGEST
STRONGER GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN INTO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND MAINLY MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED IN
THIS REGION. OTHERWISE, AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER, AND SEAS SLIGHT TO MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
TROUGH ALONG THE E MEXICAN OFFSHORES THROUGH TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH LATE
TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH WED
BEFORE IT STARTS TO WEAKEN WED NIGHT. FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST N OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD,
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA IS EXPECTED, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS ANTICIPATED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF GULF WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
EASTERN BASIN AS NOTED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA, ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSING WESTWARD. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO NOTED IN THIS VICINITY. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE BASIN,
SUPPORTED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1009 MB LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST.
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK RIDGING SE OF BERMUDA WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS MORNING. AFTERWARD, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE REGION, FURTHER WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP
TO THE SE OF BERMUDA THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TRADES OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 30.5N76.5W, AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD
TO 31N71.5W, AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MAINLY
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT, THOUGH FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
LOW, AS NOTED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR
31N37W TO 25N40W TO 27N45W. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO
SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE, WHILE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW TO W WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. RECENT BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA DEPICT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN
THIS REGION. WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE REST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
THEN STALL FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, REMAINING
OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. BY FRI EVENING,
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING SE OF BERMUDA AND SHIFTING WESTWARD WILL
INCREASE TRADES S OF 22N TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, CONTINUING
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS AGAIN OFF NE FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AS A LOW PRESSURE,
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE, MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA.
ADAMS
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