698
AXNT20 KNHC 062247
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 95.6W AT 06/2100
UTC OR 330 NM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING E AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT AND PEAK SEAS OF 11 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 92W-98W. AN EAST TO EAST- NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY FRIDAY, A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
IS ANTICIPATED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY, AND
APPROACH THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND A HURRICANE ON
THURSDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NINE
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS NEAR
65W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-66W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLANTIC IS NEAR 19W, EXTENDING FROM 06N-16N.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
13N17W AND EXTENDS TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N40W TO
10N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 09N-14N
BETWEEN 24W-41W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE.
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS
DRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM COASTAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AT
27N83W TO 28N97W TO 24N98W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES WITH SEAS 3-6 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
81W-86W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.1N 95.0W LATE TONIGHT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT, WILL TRACK TO NEAR 22.6N 93.4W
WED AFTERNOON, TO NEAR 23.1N 91.8W LATE WED NIGHT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
24.2N 90.1W THU AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS
85 KT, THEN TRACK TO NEAR 25.9N 88.8W LATE THU NIGHT AND TO NEAR
28.5N 88.3W FRI AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS
105 KT. NINE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
MOVING WELL INLAND NEAR 34.0N 88.7W SAT AFTERNOON. LONG-PERIOD
SWELLS GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST
OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY SUN. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF NINE.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
TROUGH ALONG THE E MEXICAN OFFSHORES THROUGH WED NIGHT. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHER GULF. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WED AND WED NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE
TO E WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE N OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
AN 1008 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
WITH SEAS 2-6 FT OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 60W-66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 78W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REDEVELOP TO THE SE OF BERMUDA THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH SPEED FRI.
THESE TRADES WILL THEN BE AT MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A 1011 MB LOW AT 30N79W IS SLOWLY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS TO 28N81W ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS NORTH OF THE
FRONT ARE NE STRONG WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 28N-31N WEST OF 69W. ELSEWHERE A PAIR
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS - FROM 22N47W TO 27N46W AND FROM 25N37N TO
31N38W - ARE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CAUSE ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 33W-46W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ONLY HAS WINDS GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH
SEAS 3-6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
31N74W TO 30N79W AND TO INLAND FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT,
THEN STALL FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO WED. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT,
REMAINING OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. BY FRI
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING SE OF BERMUDA AND SHIFTING
WESTWARD WILL INCREASE TRADES S OF 22N TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS, CONTINUING SAT AND SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REACH
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AGAIN OFF NE FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AS NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING.
LANDSEA
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