253
AXNT20 KNHC 070540
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 95.0W AT 07/0300
UTC OR 300 NM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING E AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
91W-97W. AN EAST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS
TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE
U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM EARLY WEDNESDAY AND A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NINE
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLANTIC IS NEAR 19W, EXTENDING FROM
05N-20N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS NEAR
66W, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 61W-66W.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W AND EXTENDS TO 09N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO
10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 250 NM
OF THESE FEATURES.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE.
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS
DRAPPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM COASTAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA
BAY TO 27N95W TO 23N97W. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHEASTERLIES WITH SEAS 3-6 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING N OF 24N AND E OF 90W, AS
WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.2N 94.2W WED MORNING, MOVE TO 22.5N 92.7W
WED EVENING, 23.2N 91.1W THU MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 24.3N 89.7W THU EVENING, 26.1N 88.7W FRI MORNING, AND 28.8N
88.3W FRI EVENING. NINE WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE
MOVING INLAND NEAR 34.1N 88.8W LATE SAT. OTHERWISE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WED AND WED
NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTH AND
AN 1008 MB COLOMBIAN LOW IS FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 13N
AND WEST OF 73W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REDEVELOP TO THE SE OF BERMUDA THU NIGHT, WHICH WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH SPEED FRI.
THESE TRADES WILL THEN BE AT MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE EAST COAST OF FL
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 30N78W IS ALONG THE FRONT,
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JUPITER, FL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND ROUGHLY 100 NM S AND E
OF THESE FEATURES. FARTHER EAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS STEMMING FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N40W ARE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 32W AND
47W. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
30N70W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 30N78W TO MELBOURNE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT, THEN
STALL FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, REMAINING
OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. BY FRI EVENING,
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING SE OF BERMUDA AND SHIFTING WESTWARD WILL
INCREASE TRADES S OF 22N TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, CONTINUING
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS AGAIN OFF NE FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING.
ADAMS
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