645
AXNT20 KNHC 071633
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 93.6W AT 07/1500 UTC
OR 230 NM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING ENE AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 11 FT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN
89W AND 94W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY AND APPROACH THE
U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING
ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE THIS
WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ISAIAS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20W, EXTENDING FROM
05N-20N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS NEAR 68.5W,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND EXTENDS TO
07N20W TO 08N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N40W TO 09N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 24W AND 33W, AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS.
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 93.6W AT 07/1500 UTC
OR 230 NM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING ENE AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 11 FT. ELSEWHERE,
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN NEAR
27.5N86.5W, AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE LOW TO 25N93W. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH
OF THESE FEATURES ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA, AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
ARE OCCURRING AS OBSERVED BY RECENT BUOY DATA. ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ISAIAS WILL MOVE TO NEAR 22.7N 92.4W THIS
EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT, STRENGTHEN
TO A HURRICANE NEAR 23.4N 90.8W THU MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT, AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS
IT NEARS 24.6N 89.2W THU EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80
KT GUSTS 100 KT, THEN MOVE TO NEAR 26.6N 88.1W FRI MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT, MOVE TO NEAR 29.2N
87.5W FRI EVENING, THEN INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
32.2N 87.6W SAT MORNING. ISAIAS WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING FARTHER INLAND TO NEAR 38.0N 87.5W EARLY
ON SUN. SWELLS FROM ISAIAS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF ISAIAS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE BASIN.
OTHERWISE, A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE GULF
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 68.5W. SEAS OF 3
TO 5 FT ARE NOTED IN THIS REGION. IN ADDITION, CONVECTION NEAR THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS LIKELY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS, AS NOTED ON RECENT BUOY AND
ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE EASTERN
EXTENSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AFTERWARD,
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA, WHICH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH FRI EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI. THESE TRADES WILL THEN BE AT MOSTLY
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74.5W SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST, AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS NOTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THIS
FRONT, WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THESE FEATURES, WEST OF 59W AND
NORTH OF 27N. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N44W
TO 22N48W, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE EAST ARE LIKELY
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. AN ADDITIONAL SURFACE
TROUGH, FROM 29N38W TO 31N40W, IS LEADING TO MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS. FINALLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, THE AZORES HIGH
DOMINATES, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS E OF 40W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
TRANSITION TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TODAY, THEN WEAKEN PAST
BERMUDA LATE THU BEFORE DISSIPATING THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, REMAINING OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. BY FRI
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND
SHIFTING WESTWARD WILL INCREASE TRADES SOUTH OF 22N TO MODERATE TO
FRESH SPEEDS, CONTINUING SAT AND SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AGAIN OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY FRI
MORNING AS TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT FRESH
SPEEDS EARLY ON SAT BEFORE WEAKENING TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY SUN
MORNING.
ADAMS
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