562
AXNT20 KNHC 080550
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU OCT 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 91.7W AT 08/0600 UTC OR
160 NM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING ENE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT (6 M),
WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 13 FT (4 M) EXTENDING OUT 30 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
ISAIAS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 21N TO
27N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. A CONTINUED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY
AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND ISAIAS SHOULD
REMAIN A STRONG HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ISAIAS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 21W, EXTENDING FROM
05N-20N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FOLLOWS THIS WAVE, FROM 04N TO 19N AND E OF 22W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W
AND 28W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS NEAR 72W, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN S
OF 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND EXTENDS TO
09N20W, THEN 11N25W, THEN 10N30W, THEN TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
12N37W, AND THEN ENDS NEAR 09N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N46W
TO 11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE
1013 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ALONG AND NEAR
THESE FEATURES TO THE W OF THE LOW.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS.
BESIDES HURRICANE ISAIAS, A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH- CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 27N86W, AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND A PAIR OF
TROUGHS EXTEND SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW. FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THESE FEATURES, AND 4 TO 7
FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING AS OBSERVED BY RECENT BUOY DATA. ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE TO NEAR 23.4N 90.7W
THU MORNING, 24.7N 89.1W THU EVENING, 26.8N 87.9W FRI MORNING,
29.6N 87.3W FRI EVENING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 32.5N 87.5W SAT MORNING, AND MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 35.1N 88.0W SAT EVENING. ISAIAS WILL
DISSIPATE LATE SUN. SWELLS FROM ISAIAS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF PORTIONS THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF ISAIAS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG THE NE GULF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU MORNING.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON CONVECTION IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE NOTED IN
THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS, AS NOTED ON RECENT BUOY
AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AFTERWARD,
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP TO THE SE OF BERMUDA, WHICH
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO FRESH
SPEEDS FRI. THESE TRADES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THEN BE AT MOSTLY
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON, THEN MAY DIMINISH
SOME LATE MON.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N73W TO INLAND CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
STUART. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THIS FRONT, WITH
6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING NEAR THESE FEATURES, WEST OF 59W AND NORTH OF 25N.
FARTHER EAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 29N37W TO 21N49W, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
EAST ARE LIKELY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. FINALLY
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, THE AZORES HIGH DOMINATES, SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS E OF 35W, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N70W TO
30N73W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND FLORIDA NEAR STUART. THE
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN PAST BERMUDA LATE THU BEFORE DISSIPATING
THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT, REMAINING OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE
THROUGH FRI. BY FRI EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING SE OF
BERMUDA AND SHIFTING WESTWARD WILL INCREASE TRADES S OF 22N TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, CONTINUING SAT AND SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AGAIN OFF NE FLORIDA BY
FRI MORNING AS TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS TRACKS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT FRESH SPEEDS
EARLY ON SAT BEFORE WEAKENING TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY SUN MORNING.
WINDS E OF NORTHERN FLORIDA BECOME W TO NW AT MODERATE SPEEDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
ADAMS
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