984
AXNT20 KNHC 081043
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU OCT 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CENTERED NEAR 23.3N 91.2W AT 08/0900 UTC OR
150 NM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING ENE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 20 FT (6 M).
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 21N TO 28N
BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN SPIRAL
RAINBANDS ARE ALSO IN THE SW GULF. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND ISAIAS SHOULD
REMAIN A STRONG HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ISAIAS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22W, EXTENDING FROM
05N-20N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA
AND 24W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS NEAR
73W, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 20N, ACROSS HISPANIOLA, AND BETWEEN 70W
AND 76W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS OVER HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS LIKELY IN THE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND EXTENDS TO
13N32W TO 08N48W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO 11N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND
43W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ISAIAS.
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS NEAR 23.3N 91.2W AT 5 AM EDT, AND IS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB.
OTHERWISE, A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NE GULF,
EXTENDING FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO 27N86W. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY, IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, ISAIAS WILL MOVE TO 24.2N 90.0W THIS AFTERNOON,
25.9N 88.6W FRI MORNING, 28.4N 87.6W FRI AFTERNOON, MOVE INLAND
AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 31.0N 87.6W SAT MORNING, MOVE
INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 33.7N 88.5W SAT
AFTERNOON, AND INLAND TO 36.0N 88.7W SUN MORNING. ISAIAS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MON. SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
IN THE WAKE OF ISAIAS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY SUN EVENING, PROVIDING MODERATE OR WEAKER
RETURN FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ALONG
WITH SLIGHT SEAS DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT OF PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF AND A FRONT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN, A TROPICAL WAVE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, BEING THE STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ONGOING IN
THE AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION. OVER THE E BASIN, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS ARE PRESENT ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS BEING
SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SE OF BERMUDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF OF AMERICA, AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE OF BERMUDA SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD
THROUGH FRI EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY REACH MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
FORECAST BASIN-WIDE BY LATE MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS ACTING TO REDUCE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO STUART, FLORIDA,
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N
AND W OF 55W. TO THE SE OF BERMUDA, A 1017 MB HIGH PREVAILS NEAR
28N54W. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N39W TO
20N51W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 20N BETWEEN
33W AND 49W. FINALLY, SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AZORES
HIGH DOMINATE THE E SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING NW AFRICA,
IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS N OF 20N AND E
OF 40W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN
TODAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE THE PORTION OF THE FRONT N OF
30N TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES PAST BERMUDA BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS OFF NE FLORIDA
TONIGHT AS HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT FRESH SPEEDS
EARLY ON SAT BEFORE WEAKENING TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
ON FRI, THUS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESE
WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS S OF 24N THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME OFF THE NE
COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY ON MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORES N OF
29N THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RAMOS
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