073
AXNT20 KNHC 081725
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC THU OCT 8 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CENTERED NEAR 23.7N 90.2W AT 1500 UTC, OR 150
NM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING E-NE AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 22 FT (6 M) WITHIN 60 NM
ACROSS THE NE SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 88.5W AND 91.5W. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN ELSEWHERE FROM
23N TO 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN OUTER RAINBANDS IN THE SW GULF. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY, GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRI,
THEN MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND ISAIAS SHOULD
REMAIN A STRONG HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELL GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE HAVE BEGUN TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TODAY, AND WILL SPREAD OUTWARD IN ALL DIRECTIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, REACHING WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT, AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA BY LATE FRI MORNING. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF, AND LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ISAIAS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23W, EXTENDING FROM
05N-19N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 18N BETWEEN THE W
COAST OF AFRICA AND 25W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS NEAR
75W, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N
TO 20.5N, AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND SE CUBA, BETWEEN
71W AND 78W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS FROM 16N TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS LIKELY IN THE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W AND EXTENDS TO 08N17W TO 11N22W TO 13N32W TO 10.5N42W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09.5N45W TO 11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 43W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ISAIAS.
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ALONG ABOUT 27N.
CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH HURRICANE
ISAIAS, BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS
WESTERN FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CORAL AND THE TAMPA BAY AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE FRONT IS
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT,
AND EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISAIAS.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 9 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH NW TO W
WINDS WRAP CYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SW GULF AND INTO THE WESTERN
YUCATAN, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT. IS NEAR 23.3N 91.2W AT 5 AM
EDT, AND IS MOVING EAST- NORTHEAST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 979 MB. OTHERWISE, A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE NE GULF, EXTENDING FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO 27N86W.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE TO NEAR 24.9N 89.0W
THIS EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT, TO
NEAR 27.1N 87.9W FRI MORNING, AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 29.6N 87.4W FRI EVENING. ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL
INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 32.3N 87.8W SAT
MORNING, THEN DISSIPATE EARLY ON MON. SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING
LATER TODAY AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON FRI. IN
THE WAKE OF ISAIAS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTH- CENTRAL GULF BY SUN EVENING RESULTING IN MODERATE OR WEAKER
RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W, ALONG WITH SLIGHT SEAS. OVER THE CENTRAL
BASIN, A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
GENERATE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, DESCRIBED ABOVE, WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION N OF 16N
AND INTO HISPANIOLA, EASTERN CUBA, AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ONGOING IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST
CONVECTION. OVER THE E BASIN, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO E-SE
WINDS ARE PRESENT, WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT, SUPPORTED BY HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SE OF BERMUDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF OF AMERICA, AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON
AS HIGH PRESSURE SE OF BERMUDA SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH FRI
EVENING, BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY REACH MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ON FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
75W IS ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST BASIN-
WIDE BY LATE MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
N OF THE BAHAMAS AND HELPS TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE JUST W OF
BERMUDA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH,
THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGING ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY ARE LEADING TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS N OF 27.5N AND W OF 74W. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT AND W OF 75W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS PREVAIL N OF
28N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. FARTHER E NEAR
THE FRONT, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING N OF 30N TO THE FRONT, BETWEEN 55W AND 64W. AT THE
SURFACE, A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N53W, AND EXTENDS A
BROAD RIDGE SOUTHWEST TO 60W AND THEN WESTWARD TO THE NW BAHAMAS.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH HAS
INDUCED A SURFACE TROUGH BELOW IT, EXTENDING FROM 29N39W TO
21N49W. THIS DEEP LAYERED FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 34W AND 48W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AZORES HIGH DOMINATE THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS E OF 38W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER NW AFRICA, IS SUPPORTING FRESH
NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT N OF 20N AND E OF 44W.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT. ITS NORTHERN PORTION WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES PAST BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING WHILE ITS WESTERN
PORTION WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON SAT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS OFF NE FLORIDA TONIGHT AS HURRICANE
ISAIAS CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. THESE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT FRESH SPEEDS EARLY ON SAT BEFORE
WEAKENING TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SE OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ON FRI, THUS
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESE WINDS OF
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS S OF 24N THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD,
A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEASTERN COAST
EARLY ON MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N THROUGH MIDWEEK.
STRIPLING
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