349
AXNT20 KNHC 082302
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI OCT 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 89.3W AT 08/2100 UTC OR
190 NM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING NE AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 32 FT (9.5 M)
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. ISAIAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND ISAIAS SHOULD REMAIN A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA,
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN BANDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS, RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST. FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT. SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ISAIAS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS AND
EXTENDS ALONG 23W/24W, SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
05N TO 16N BETWEEN THE W COAST OF AFRICA AND 28W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ITS AXIS
IS ALONG 76W, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN
CUBA, AND PARTS OF HISPANIOLA, AND JAMAICA AS WELL AS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND REGIONAL
WATERS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS FROM 15N TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS LIKELY IN THE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO 12N30W TO 11N45W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11NN45W TO
NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W, AND FROM 04N TO
12N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ISAIAS.
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO NEAR
25N94W. CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE
FRONT IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT WITH THESE WINDS PER ALTIMETER
DATA. ELSEWHERE, FRESH W TO NW WINDS WRAP CYCLONICALLY ACROSS
THE SW GULF AND INTO THE WESTERN YUCATAN, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 8
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE TO 25.7N 88.4W FRI
MORNING, 28.2N 87.4W FRI AFTERNOON, INLAND TO 31.0N 87.2W SAT
MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
33.2N 87.8W SAT AFTERNOON, INLAND TO 35.0N 87.8W SUN MORNING, AND
INLAND TO 37.0N 85.0W SUN AFTERNOON. ISAIAS WILL DISSIPATE MON
AFTERNOON. SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
ISAIAS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF BY SUN EVENING RESULTING IN MODERATE OR WEAKER RETURN FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION, EXCEPT FOR FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
NORTH OF 19N AND WEST OF 85W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 76W IS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRESH WINDS WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND TO THE GULF OF AMERICA ON FRI. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS NEAR 76W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST BASIN WIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
PULSE OF FRESH SPEEDS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND SOUTH AMERICA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NE
OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N62W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT AND W OF 75W. MODERATE
TO FRESH SW WINDS PREVAIL N OF 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W, WHERE
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N52W, AND
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 60W AND THEN WESTWARD TO
THE BAHAMAS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, A DEEP LAYERED UPPER
TROUGH HAS INDUCED A SURFACE TROUGH BELOW IT, AND EXTENDS FROM
29N46W TO 20N51W. THIS DEEP LAYERED FEATURE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N AND E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS TO ABOUT 38W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AZORES HIGH, DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER NW AFRICA, IS SUPPORTING FRESH
NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS N OF 20N AND E OF 44W. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT.
ITS NORTHERN PORTION WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
WHILE ITS WESTERN PORTION WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON
SAT. WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS OFF NE FLORIDA
TONIGHT AS HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE AT FRESH SPEEDS
EARLY ON SAT BEFORE WEAKENING TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY SUN MORNING.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SE OF BERMUDA WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
ON FRI, THUS RESULTING IN AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND E TO
SE WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS S OF 24N THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE U.S.
SOUTHEASTERN COAST EARLY ON MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
29N THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE IT FURTHER WEAKENS.
GR
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