639
AXNT20 KNHC 090957
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI OCT 9 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0955 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 88.0W AT 09/0900 UTC OR
320 NM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO, MOVING NNE AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BETWEEN 83W-90W. STRONGEST
STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OF ISAIAS. SEAS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE UP TO 32 FT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE LANDFALL
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ISAIAS IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS MORNING. SLIGHT WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE. SWELLS FROM ISAIAS ARE AFFECTING THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ISAIAS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 17N AND EAST OF 38W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 15N TO 23N AND BETWEEN 74W AND 82W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 12N33W TO 09N41W. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR
INFORMATION ON THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ISAIAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR
28N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT INTERACTS WITH ISAIAS. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SW GULF WATERS. OUTSIDE OF
THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF ISAIAS, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ISAIAS WILL MOVE TO 28.4N 87.3W THIS AFTERNOON,
INLAND TO 31.0N 87.1W SAT MORNING, MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 33.5N 87.5W SAT AFTERNOON, MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 35.5N 86.7W SUN MORNING,
INLAND TO 38.2N 83.1W SUN AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING.
SWELLS GENERATED BY THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
BASIN CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF ISAIAS, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY SUN
EVENING RESULTING IN MODERATE OR WEAKER RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE OUTER BANKS
SUSTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED WEST OF 82W DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF HURRICANE ISAIAS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF
VENEZUELA. HURRICANE ISAIAS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA IS
PRODUCING FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THESE
WINDS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 79W
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
OF 4-6 FT ARE FOUND OFF NE FLORIDA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF
55W, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT.
A STRONG 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE AZORES
AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 50W COMBINE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND EAST OF 50W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON SAT. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OFF NE FLORIDA AS HURRICANE ISAIAS TRACKS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SE AT MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS EARLY ON SAT BEFORE WEAKENING TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY SUN. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT NE-E WINDS OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS AND
ROUGH SEAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS, MAINLY N
OF 26N, SUN INTO MON. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEASTERN COAST EARLY ON MON AND MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHILE IT WEAKENS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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