727
AXNT20 KNHC 100458
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS CENTERED NEAR 30.8N 86.5W AT 10/0300 UTC OR
40 NM ENE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA, MOVING N AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 26N AND E OF 86W. SEAS UP TO 30 FT ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ALABAMA
AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING.
SWELLS FROM ISAIAS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF COASTS OF THE
UNITED STATES, MEXICO, AND WESTERN CUBA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ISAIAS NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAIL ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOTED TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 12N30W TO 09N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT
POINT TO 09N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 300
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE ISAIAS.
SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED BY ISAIAS DOMINATE MOST OF THE
GULF, REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS 23N BASED ON AN ALTIMETER PASS.
FRESH TO STRONG CYCLONIC WINDS SPIRAL INTO ISAIAS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND
THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 93W. ELSEWHERE, A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS N FLORIDA. MODERATE TO
FRESH CYCLONIC N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF,
WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 8 FT IN NE TO E SWELL FROM ISAIAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM NEAR 32.7N 86.7W SAT MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 34.7N 86.7W SAT EVENING, TO 36.9N 84.4W SUN
MORNING, TO 39.0N 80.5W SUN EVENING, AND DISSIPATE MON MORNING.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE BASIN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF ISAIAS, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY SUN EVENING
RESULTING IN MODERATE OR WEAKER EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SEAS ARE WITH
THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE OBSERVED WEST OF 84W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, BLOWING INTO
THE GENERAL CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ISAIAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE PREVALENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS OVER THE SW PART OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS AND
SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF VENEZUELA. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 82W, IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, IS
PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 75W
AND 82W. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED N OF
AREA NEAR 34N53W TO 27N64W, THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 30N81W.
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE FOUND NORTH OF
THE FRONT OFF NE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS WEST OF 50W, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE
TO FRESH SE WINDS N OF HISPANIOLA TO ABOUT 23N BETWEEN 68W AND
73W.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 29N46W TO 21N50W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC
FORECAST REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED JUST NE OF THE AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NE TO E WINDS N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND E OF 40W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO SAT. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OFF NE
FLORIDA WILL VEER TO THE SE AT MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS EARLY ON
SAT BEFORE WEAKENING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS BY SUN. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT OFF
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS, MAINLY N OF 25N, SUN INTO MON.
LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE U.S.
SOUTHEASTERN COAST EARLY ON MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
29N THROUGH WED NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BASIN NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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