685
AXNT20 KNHC 101023
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 18N AND EAST OF 45W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W, SOUTH OF 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRESENT FROM 14N TO 23N AND BETWEEN 75W AND 82W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 16N17W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 09N46W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N46W TO 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 17N AND
BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HURRICANE ISAIAS WEAKENED QUICKLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND IS NOW
ANALYZED AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. A COLD
FRONT IS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN GULF, EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE TO NEAR NORTHERN YUCATAN. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE SUSTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH OF TAMPA TO JUST NORTH OF YUCATAN. DRY AIR DOMINATES THE
REST OF THE BASIN ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FOUND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, WHILE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE
FRONT. SEAS OF 6-11 FT ARE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF, WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING IN THE NE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONG WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AND
RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS PRODUCING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
INTO A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN ON
SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
BY SUN EVENING RESULTING IN MODERATE OR WEAKER EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. .
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO
THE CARIBBEAN, FORCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE BASIN. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
STRONG SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL REACH 9 FT AT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF VENEZUELA. STRONG
WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 83W, IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW,
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N BETWEEN
75W AND 80W. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N55W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 27N65W, FOLLOWED BY A STATIONARY FRONT
TO JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA NEAR 31N73W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHED NORTHWARD BY FORMER CYCLONE ISAIAS
SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 74W.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT
ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 55W.
A BROAD 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE AZORES AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 55W COMBINE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-9 FT NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND EAST OF 55W. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
OF 5-8 FT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF
30W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF 72W. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS, MAINLY N OF 25N, SUN INTO MON. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT OFF
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH SUN. LOOKING
AHEAD, A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE U.S.
SOUTHEASTERN COAST EARLY ON MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WED NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BASIN NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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