704
AXNT20 KNHC 101700
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 29W AND 37W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W-84W, SOUTH OF 22N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 09N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W, AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 17.5N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 11.5N26W
TO NEAR 08.5N44W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09.5N51W TO 10N63W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 06.5N TO 17.5N E OF 26W TO THE AFRICAN COAST, AND
FROM 07.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 37W AND 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS IS NOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA MOVING
NORTHWARD. A COLD FRONT HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF,
EXTENDING FROM ISAIAS THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NEAR 25N93W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW SUSTAIN A 90 NM WIDE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 30N83.5W TO 24.5N87W.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND E OF THIS
LINE OF WEATHER, AND PRODUCING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE LINE EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS,
HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE OF TAMPA BAY. DRY AIR DOMINATES THE REST OF
THE BASIN ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS, EXCEPT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS AS
MODERATE CYCLONIC WINDS FLOW PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. NE SWELL
GENERATED FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF ISAIAS AS IT MOVE INLAND LAST
NIGHT IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF S
OF 28N, WHERE SEA ARE 6 TO 10 FT, HIGHEST NEAR 26.5N92W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS
THE GULF, AND ROUGH SEAS IN S SWELL OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE NE SWELL OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL GULF WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IS WRAPPING AROUND THE REMNANT LOW OF ISAIAS, DEVELOPING A COLD
FRONT FROM NEAR DESTIN, FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH MID WEEK, THEN
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE TEXAS COAST BY MID WEEK, AND
GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
A VERY MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY,
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL N AND NE OF THE REGION. THE
CURRENT PATTERN IS FORCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL BASIN, WITH
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE E WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE NW BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFF COLOMBIA. THESE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
AMERICA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 31N52W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 26.5N62W, THEN CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N70W AND THEN REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA
AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
PUSHED NORTHWARD BY FORMER ISAIAS SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N AND W OF 74.5W. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W AND THEN VEER
SE TO S THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND WATERS W OF 70W. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 28N54W TO 20N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS S AND
SHIFTING W INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES, AND PRODUCING ACROSS MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 62W.
A BROAD 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 56W AND ARE COMBINING
TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF
6-9 FT NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 26N, AND E OF 50W. MODERATE
TO FRESH SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND EAST OF 30W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO
27N60W, THEN BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N70W, AND THEN A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SC COAST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 74W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MON, AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY MON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
31N75W TO NEAR JUPITER INLET, FLORIDA BY EARLY TUE, AND THEN START
TO STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM BERMUDA TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS BY
EARLY WED.
STRIPLING
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