813
AXNT20 KNHC 102307
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT OCT 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ALONG 27W S
OF 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W, SOUTH OF
20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, AND IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 18N
BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 12N27W TO 08N46W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N46W TO NE VENEZUELA NEAR 08.5N61W. ASIDE
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, CONVECTION
IS LIMITED ELSEWHERE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
FLASH FLOODING RISK CONTINUES WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS
AS IT MOVES TROUGH THE SE OF THE UNITED STATES. IT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 4 NM W OF BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA AT 2100 UTC. A COLD FRONT
HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, EXTENDING FROM ISAIAS THROUGH
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 24N96W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW SUSTAIN A 90 NM
WIDE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TO NEAR 23N87W. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO
9 FT ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND E OF THIS LINE OF WEATHER. MODERATE
N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS. DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH SW WINDS, LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE NE SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
GULF THROUGH MID WEEK, WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A DISSIPATING
WARM FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, SUPPORTING
E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE
TEXAS COAST BY MID WEEK, AND GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS
ELSEWHERE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
A VERY MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL N AND NE OF THE REGION. THE CURRENT
PATTERN IS FORCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS TO 7 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. MODERATE E WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE SEEN ACROSS
THE NW PART OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK,
WITH FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND OFF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 31N51W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 29N55W, WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 31N68W AND THEN REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA AND INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
PUSHED NORTHWARD BY FORMER ISAIAS SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N AND W OF 75W. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W AND THEN VEER
SE TO S THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS W OF 70W. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THIS AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
SPINNING JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
27N55W TO 21N58W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST E OF THE
AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO ABOUT 22N AND E OF 35W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST EARLY MON, REACH FROM 31N75W TO NEAR JUPITER INLET,
FLORIDA BY EARLY TUE, AND THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM BERMUDA
TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY WED. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH N
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAY FOLLOW ANOTHER FRONT REACHING ALONG
30N EAST OF 75W BY LATE THU NIGHT.
GR
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