947
AXNT20 KNHC 111014
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N27W. THE BROAD SYSTEM
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
FROM 06N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 22W AND 36W.
ANOTHER EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W, SOUTH OF
19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 33W AND
45W.
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, AND IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE
NW CARIBBEAN.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 14N27W, TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
10N41W AND TO 06N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N52W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED LONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND E
OF 24W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N84W TO 25N97W, THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO 23N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED S OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO EVIDENT NEAR THESE TROUGHS.
THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF, ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH SW WINDS, MODERATE SEAS, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF,
SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO THE TEXAS COAST BY MID WEEK, AND GENTLE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN,
FORCING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE FOUND OFF COLOMBIA. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PAIRED WITH AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN, AFFECTING MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, WITH FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N48W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N54W, THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO
31N70W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES. MEANWHILE,
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT OFF NE FLORIDA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND A TROUGH NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS SUSTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 60W AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT WEST OF 50W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST REGION IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SE OF THE
AZORES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO ABOUT 26N AND EAST OF 40W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST EARLY MON, REACH FROM 31N75W TO NEAR JUPITER INLET,
FLORIDA BY EARLY TUE, AND THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM BERMUDA
TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY WED. FRESH N WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS MAY FOLLOW ANOTHER FRONT REACHING ALONG 30N EAST OF
75W BY LATE THU NIGHT.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page