732
AXNT20 KNHC 120537
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS 14N31W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 10N TO 18N AND BETWEEN 21W AND 31W. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED A LARGE AREA OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SEAS ARE 6-10 FT IN
THE AREA DESCRIBED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR, AT BEST,
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME TOO STRONG FOR
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND ALSO THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 10N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER, AND
MAINLY FROM 07N TO 13N AND BETWEEN 35W AND 45W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 13N31W AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N43W TO 08N49W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N49W
TO 06N57W. THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES IS
DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM VENICE, FLORIDA, NEAR 27N82W TO 25N86W
AND THEN WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N97W. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE SEEN NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE
TO STORMS THAT FORMED OVER YUCATAN EARLIER TODAY. A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF PENSACOLA, FLORIDA SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS IN THE
NE AND SW GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST GULF THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE WILL SUPPORT E
TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE
TEXAS COAST, AND GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE. FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF FRI NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND IN THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS, NEAR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA AND OFF PANAMA.
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE
CARIBBEAN DUE TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FORCE FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERN TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE REST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, ALONG WITH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, LEE OF
CUBA AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON, WITH FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF COLOMBIA. THESE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE CAROLINAS AND ENTERS OUR AREA NEAR 31N79W
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N39W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N46W,
FOLLOWED BY A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N60W AND 27N68W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM OF
THESE BOUNDARIES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FRONTS, DEEP TROPICS AND A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NW ATLANTIC SUSTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE OCCURRING
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING
OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL REACH FROM 31N77W TO JUPITER INLET,
FLORIDA LATE MON, AND FROM BERMUDA TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS BY
EARLY TUE. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH MID WEEK, WHILE
THE WESTERN PART LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA
WHILE DISSIPATING. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
DELGADO
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