067
AXNT20 KNHC 121052
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W, SOUTH OF 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS 15.5N30W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 12N TO 22N AND BETWEEN 21W AND 30W. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED A LARGE AREA OF FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SEAS ARE 6-10 FT IN
THE AREA DESCRIBED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR, AT BEST,
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME TOO STRONG FOR
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND ALSO THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 10N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER, MAINLY
FROM 08N TO 11N AND BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 17N28W AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 07N49W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N49W TO 05N53W.
THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES IS DESCRIBED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N82W TO 25N86W, THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO 26N97W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED
NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO STORMS THAT
FORMED OVER YUCATAN EARLIER TODAY. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF PENSACOLA, FLORIDA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN, EXCEPT FOR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS IN THE NE AND SW
GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST GULF THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE WILL SUPPORT E
TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE
TEXAS COAST, AND GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE. FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF FRI NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND IN
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS, NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA
AND OFF PANAMA.
A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE
CARIBBEAN DUE TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FORCE FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERN TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE REST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN, ALONG WITH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, LEE OF
CUBA AND GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON, WITH FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OFF COLOMBIA. THESE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE CAROLINAS AND ENTERS OUR AREA NEAR 31N77W
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 28N80W. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N37W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 26N48W, FOLLOWED BY A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 26N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM OF THESE BOUNDARIES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FRONTS, DEEP TROPICS AND A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NW ATLANTIC SUSTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS ARE OCCURRING
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE
WEST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD BEFORE
STALLING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH MIDWEEK, WHILE THE WESTERN PART
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHILE DISSIPATING.
A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.
ERA
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