939
AXNT20 KNHC 121736
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED AND IS NOW
ANALYZED ALONG 30W, SOUTH OF 21N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. A
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AT 17N30W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM
11N TO 23N AND BETWEEN 22W AND 34W. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 1209
UTC INDICATE A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W. SEAS ARE
6-10 FT IN THE AREA DESCRIBED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR, AT
BEST, MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME TOO
STRONG FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND ALSO THROUGH NEXT 7 DAYS.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 04N44W TO
19N42W, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 12N AND BETWEEN 39W AND 45W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W, AND THEN CURVES TO 08N20W, THEN TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
17N30W, THEN TO 05.5N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED
ABOVE IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 31N AND 37W, WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 21W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES, FL TO 23N90W TO
25N94W, WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE TX COAST
NEAR 27N97W. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EVIDENT IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTS MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-5 FT ACROSS THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR NAPLES,
FLORIDA TO 23N90W TO 25N94W WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF WILL SUPPORT E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO THE TEXAS COAST, AND GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS
ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS WILL FOLLOW A FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF FRI NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR 72W SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS AREAS
S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, THE EAST
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF
11N AND W OF 75W. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES IN
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FORCES FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND SEAS OF
6-8 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN, ALONG WITH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SOUTH- CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST THEREAFTER ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 29N78W, THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO THE FL COAST NEAR PORT SAINT LUCIE.
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO FRESH W WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7
FT ARE SEEN N OF 28N AND W OF 74W. FARTHER EAST, ANOTHER
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N34W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 24N55W AND THEN TO 26N69W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT
FROM 25N50W NORTH AND EASTWARD. NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT
QUICKLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS, AND ALSO SUPPORT SEAS
OF 6-10 FT IN N SWELL N OF THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FRONTS, DEEP
TROPICS AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NW ATLANTIC SUSTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC S OF 23N, AWAY FROM ANY AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES OR TROPICAL WAVES. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND 3-6 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE
ALONG A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 31N75W TO FORT PIERCE, FLORIDA.
THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY STALL FROM BERMUDA TO MIAMI TUE, THEN
DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF 75W TUE INTO WED, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG
29N THROUGH THU. LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE
WATERS OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
MORNING.
ADAMS
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