497
AXNT20 KNHC 131023
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE OCT 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 33W, FROM 10N TO 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AT THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N32W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE APPROXIMATELY
WITHIN 390 NM NE SEMICIRCLE, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 12N TO 25N
BETWEEN 21W AND 35W. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AND ENCOUNTERS STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS WITH SOME
FLOODING POSSIBLE THERE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THROUGH
NEXT 7 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 45W, FROM 10N TO 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD NEAR 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 46W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N17W TO 11N47W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N47W TO 10N55W TO 09N61W. SEE INFORMATION ON
THE CONVECTION IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N88W, WHICH IS PROVIDING GENTLE
TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF S OF
27N, AND E TO SE WINDS OF THE SAME SPEED W OF 90W. SEAS BASIN-
WIDE ARE MAINLY SLIGHT WITH SOME AREAS REACHING 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN WILL SUPPORT
E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE
TEXAS COAST, AND GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST GULF FRI NIGHT, AND
REACH FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST GULF BY SAT
NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT, WITH GALES POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN
TAMPICO AND COATZACOALCOS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE LEE OF CUBA ADJACENT
WATERS, IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A
MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THIS LOW ALOFT REFLECTS AT THE
SURFACE ON A TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE, THE PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA
ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE E OF THE BAHAMAS ARE SUPPORTING A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, THUS RESULTING IN MODERATE OR
WEAKER TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH
WINDS OFFSHORE VENEZUELA IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY, ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW. FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL DIMINISH BY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN,
THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE AREA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 25N80W. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO 27N79W, WHICH
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT TO APPROXIMATELY 67W.
FARTHER EAST, A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N67W. HOWEVER, IT
LACKS CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES RIDGE WITH A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N34W TO 29N48W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 28N51W TO 23N55W. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE N OF 20N W OF 44W. EAST OF 44W, WINDS
ARE FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF A LOW CONNECTED TO A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 32W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO ONGOING
BETWEEN THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED. A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF 75W INTO WED, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 29N
THROUGH THU. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING, AND
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE SAT. STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
ERA
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