097
AXNT20 KNHC 131653
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE OCT 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 33W, FROM 10N
TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE NEAR 19N33W AS A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS INDICATED. A TIGHT GRADIENT TO
ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS FROM 17N TO 24N
BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 8 TO 10 FT
(2.5 TO 3 M). SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO
18N.
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 46W FROM 10N
TO 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM
11N TO 18N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 13N16W TO
19N33W TO 11N47W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N47W TO 10N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 25W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 38W-42W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1018 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 29N88W. ITS ASSOCIATED GRADIENT
IS PROVIDING GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF S OF 27N, AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF THE SAME SPEED W OF 90W. SEAS BASIN-WIDE ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 2 TO 4 FT, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT FROM
22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN WILL
SUPPORT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST, AND GENTLE BREEZES AND
SLIGHT SEAS ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NW GULF FRI NIGHT, AND REACH FROM SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST GULF BY SAT NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND COATZACOALCOS FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE TAIL-END OF A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN NORTH OF 19N WEST OF 80W, AND
SOUTH OF 19N WEST OF 85W, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
REGION. A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
ABOUT 76W. THIS FEATURE REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE, THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE SUPPORTING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, THUS RESULTING IN MODERATE OR WEAKER
TRADE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT FOR FRESH WINDS
OFFSHORE VENEZUELA IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY, ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. FRESH EAS TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST NORTH
OF 13N SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA THROUGH MIDWEEK, NORTH OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM NORTHWEST OF
THE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AND FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W.
FARTHER EAST, A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 29N53W TO
24N57W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THESE FEATURE.
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AZORES RIDGE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N34W TO NEAR 30N43W. A WEAK PRESSURE IS GENERALLY
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 50W. SEAS
WITH THESE WINDS ARE 3 TO 5 FT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL EAST
OF 65W, AND IN NORTHEAST TO EAST SWELL WEST OF 65W. HIGHER EAST
WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE NEAR
THE EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO ONGOING
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS AS NOTED
IN AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
WED. A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WATERS EAST OF 75W INTO WED, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE ALONG 29N
THROUGH THU. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING, AND
REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE SAT. STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
AGUIRRE
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