470
FXUS63 KOAX 180530
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
(90-100% POPS). MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AMOUNTS OF 1.0-1.5"
WITH ISOLATED 2"+ READINGS POSSIBLE.
- TURNING WINDY AND COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
CLEARING SKIES OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA CLUNG ONTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
UNDER A MORE INSULATED BLANKET OF CLOUDS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITHIN
THOSE CLOUDS TRAVERSED OUR SOUTHEASTERN BORDER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, IT STRUGGLED TO PRODUCE MUCH, IF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN, GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IT WAS FALLING INTO.
BY 2 PM, TEMPERATURES HAD REBOUNDED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60,
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THICKER CLOUD COVER HELD
OFF THE WARM SUNSHINE, LOCKING THE REST OF THE REGION IN THE LOWER
50S.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY, PUNCHING A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO EDGE INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 09Z TONIGHT, AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
0.25"/HOUR OR LESS, PREVENTING EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND MITIGATING ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS. THE DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY IMPINGE ON THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, EATING INTO RAINFALL TOTALS.
OVERALL, MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL SEE AROUND 1"-1.5" WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS AROUND 2" POSSIBLE.
AMPLE SHEAR OF 45-55KTS COULD HELP SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH A
CELL THAT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MU-CAPE
AVAILABLE AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM OR TWO STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY (<10%) AT THIS
TIME.
THE STRONGEST WINDS (FROM THE SOUTHEAST) ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA TO LOW 60S IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NE. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING BOTH GUSTY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BRINGING
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
ISOBARS TIGHTEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR
EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
TO 45 MPH, LIKELY NECESSITATING A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S, WITH A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A FLURRY OR TWO NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING, EACH NIGHT FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH LOWER CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KLNK STARTING AT 10Z, FOLLOWED BY KOMA
AND THEN KOFK AS A WIDESPREAD RAIN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT THOSE LIMITING CONDITIONS TO START OUT AS LOW-END MVFR
BEFORE FALLING INTO THE IFR RANGE WITH SOME PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN. LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AROUND 00Z
AT KOMA/KLNK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BY 22Z, VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AND
CEILINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-END MVFR TERRITORY THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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