990
FXUS63 KOAX 190512
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1112 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL (100% POPS) CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR BRIEF
TORNADO MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 IN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.
- WINDY AND COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THIS AFTERNOON - TUESDAY...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE "DRY-ISH" SLOT
PUSHING UP INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. IF WE GET ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS
IN THE RAIN WITH A FEW PEEKS OF SUN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WE
COULD POTENTIALLY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP. MY HUNCH IS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO
LIMITED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT THE HRRR SHOWS WHAT MAY
BE THE "WORST-CASE SCENARIO" PRODUCING A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE LOW, IF WE CAN GET A STRONGER STORM TO DEVELOP WE COULD
SEE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. AS THE
LOW- PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST, WE'LL SEE WINDS
RAMP UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY IS GOING TO BE A WINDY, COOL DAY, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 MPH. WE COULD POTENTIALLY GET A FEW GUSTS UP NEAR 40 IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WITH SKIES CLEARING, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES GET UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER, WITH MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
WEDNESDAY, A STRONG NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SETS UP AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR EAST GETS STALLED, LEADING TO POTENTIALLY EVEN
WINDIER CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH, BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY BE HIGHER. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN
COOLER AIR, HIGHS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY
DESPITE ANOTHER SUNNY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST FINALLY BREAKS LOOSE, ALLOWING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA TO RELAX WHICH WILL
DECREASE WINDS. WITH RELAXING WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE MUCH MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 20S ACROSS OUR
AREA, AND A FEW SPOTS MAY DROP INTO THE TEENS. WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER START AND COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
OUR COLDEST MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE ON FRIDAY AS WE SEE WINDS
DROP TO NEARLY CALM. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. GOOD NEWS FOR PEOPLE WHO
DON'T LIKE COLD WEATHER, THOUGH, IS THAT WE'LL HAVE A RIDGE
START TO BUILD IN WHICH WILL LEND TOWARD A WARMING TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ON FRIDAY, MID
40S ON SATURDAY, AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S ON SUNDAY. THIS RIDGE
WILL ALSO KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH AND
KEEP MOVING THIS SYSTEM AROUND, SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES BY AROUND 10Z. WINDS WILL SETTLE IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST,
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL
COME DOWN A BIT TUESDAY EVENING, SUSTAINED AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH
PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS NEAR 18 KTS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME 5000-7000 FT CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING MVFR/IFR, FOLLOWED BY JUST SOME PASSING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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