307
FXUS63 KOAX 191757
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1157 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA (NORTH OF US-30) ON WEDNESDAY.
- COOL AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 10S AND 20S.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, RETURNING US TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...
THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR
AREA YESTERDAY WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE UPPER-MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
(CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES). PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY INTO
TOMORROW. FURTHERMORE, FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED-LAYER LOOKS
TO BE 50-55 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER END MODEL SOLUTIONS RESOLVING 60
KNOTS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTHS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK TO REACH ~800
HPA, OR 1-2 KM. THIS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW FOR A DAYTIME
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTAINING STRONG WINDS. VERTICAL MOMENTUM
PROFILES ALSO LOOK TO BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL. AS SUCH, HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
EFFICIENTLY MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH TODAY, AND 35-45 MPH TOMORROW ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. DYNAMICS SEEM FAVORABLE TO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
HIGHER END WIND GUSTS (50-55 MPH). IF THE DISTRIBUTION SKEWS
MORE TOWARDS THESE HIGHER END GUSTS WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL
SUITES, THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. NONETHELESS, WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE, THESE HIGHER END WIND
GUSTS STILL SEEM FAIRLY UNLIKELY, AROUND A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF OCCURRING.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS BY THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES. AS A
RESULT, HIGH HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP US DRY AND RELATIVELY SUNNY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE FLOW LOOKS TO PREDOMINANTLY BE NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 10S TO MID 20S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING US TO WARM UP
TO NEAR/SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE
COOLING DUE TO WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP LOWS WELL
INTO THE 20S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS
WILL BE AROUND FREEZING.
ON SUNDAY, OUR NEXT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ROUGHLY ALONG THE
US-CANADA BORDER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS POTENTIALLY DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO
THE LOW 20S (NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE). HIGHS BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOKS TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KOFK,
KOMA AND KLNK TERMINALS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET, DROPPING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH THE
EVENING, AND PICKING UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING,
WITH CEILINGS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS FOR THE TERMINALS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DARRAH
AVIATION...WEKESSER
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