343
FXUS63 KOAX 200510
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1110 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA (NORTH OF US-30) ON WEDNESDAY.
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S, AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 10S AND 20S.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING BACK
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS
CURRENTLY STALLED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA, WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CLOSER TO THE LOW IN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, WHERE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH
WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) WE'RE GOING
TO SEE THIS LOW STRETCH A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST BEFORE EXITING
EASTWARD, EXPANDING SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD SEE WINDS TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE
CROSS THE AREA, WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN COOLER, DRY AIR OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE RELAXING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'LL SEE A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH
A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEND TOWARD A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES JUST IN TIME FOR WEEKEND ACTIVITIES. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY BRINGING BACK
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THOSE MAKING PLANS FOR THANKSGIVING TRAVEL WILL WANT TO WATCH
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN IRRITATINGLY
INCONSISTENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT, BUT
ENSEMBLES DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY, SNOW LOVERS DON'T
GET YOUR HOPES TOO HIGH JUST YET.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FAR, SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN GUSTING
MUCH, SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS MORE LIKELY, AS WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 45-50
KTS. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL START GUSTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 12-13Z, WITH GUSTS PEAKING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
DOWN A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT STILL AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH PASSING MID CLOUDS FOR MOST, AND PERHAPS A FEW 7000-9000 FT
CLOUDS NEAR OFK AND OMA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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