150
FXUS63 KOAX 200956
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
356 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TODAY OF 45-60 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE.
- WIND GUSTS OF 45-60 MPH COMBINED WITH RH IN THE 25-45% RANGE
WILL BRING EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK INTO
THE 30S AND LOW 40S, AND LOWS INTO THE 10S AND LOW 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE (990 MB) IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
FAR SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAY TODAY. AS SUCH, THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN CONSIDERABLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ANYWHERE FROM 50 TO 65 KNOTS. THIS STRONG FLOW
WILL ALSO EXTEND DOWN THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH FLOW IN THE 950-900 HPA LAYER RANGING FROM
40 TO 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH
EXPECTED. THE HIGHER END WIND GUSTS (55 TO 60 MPH) WILL BE MOST
LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO WAYNE (A HIGH WIND
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA). THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
THERE ARE ALREADY UPSTREAM SIGNALS PRECEDING THIS WIND EVENT,
WITH YANKTON, SD GUSTING TO 45 MPH AT 3 AM, AND SEVERAL WIND
GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THE LAST FEW
HOURS.
ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE YET EQUALLY IMPORTANT RISK TO DISCUSS WILL
BE EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA YESTERDAY HAS DRIED OUT FUELS TO
LEVELS SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN BEFORE OUR MONDAY RAIN. EVEN SOIL
MOISTURES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW, WITH THE NEBRASKA MESONET SHOWING 2
METER MOISTURE LEVELS PEAKING OUT IN THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, RH VALUES WILL DROP ANYWHERE FROM 45-50 PERCENT (FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA) TO 25-30 PERCENT
(AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NELIGH TO PLATTSMOUTH). THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA TODAY, BEGINNING AROUND 8 AM. EXTREME FIRE DANGER SHOULD
SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET, AROUND 5 PM, THOUGH WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS
REMAINING AT 25 TO 35 MPH.
THOUGH ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
OUR AREA, A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA.
..TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES SEASONAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE LOW 40S TOMORROW, AND
GRADUALLY WARM TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S BY SATURDAY.
...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY..
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS LOOKS TO DE-AMPLIFY WITH THE APPROACH OF SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON SUNDAY, A NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR FROM UP NORTH. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ANYWHERE FROM
25 TO 35 DEGREES BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
START OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO FEATURE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO
FAR OF THE SEASON, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S, AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE 10S TO MID 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SO FAR, SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN GUSTING
MUCH, SUGGESTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS MORE LIKELY, AS WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 45-50
KTS. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL START GUSTING WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 12-13Z, WITH GUSTS PEAKING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO COME
DOWN A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT STILL AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH PASSING MID CLOUDS FOR MOST, AND PERHAPS A FEW 7000-9000 FT
CLOUDS NEAR OFK AND OMA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ015-033-034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
078-088>093.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...DARRAH
AVIATION...CA
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