239
FXUS63 KOAX 210530
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (35-45+KTS) AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (25-35%) HAVE RESULTED IN AN
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
LOW 20S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT:
THE REMNANT OF A STRONG LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM (CURRENT CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 997-MB) IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA HAS BEEN SLOWLY
DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS WORKED TO
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
STRONG, GUSTY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. GUSTS HAVE REGULARLY BEEN IN
THE 35-45+KT RANGE THUS FAR TODAY. STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS BEING
SEEN IN AREAS WITH NO CLOUD COVER AS THE PBL HAS BECOME DEEPER
WITH RADIATIONAL HEATING AND STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT ARE ABLE
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 10S
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND
25-35%. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS HAS CREATED AN
EXTREME FIRE DANGER THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SEEN ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
THIS WEEK, FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 23Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, HOWEVER,
GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25-30+KT RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WORK INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL CALM DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
CLIMB INTO THE WEEKEND BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS. A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWS
PLUNGING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW-20S BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-TO- UPPER 30S. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION, WHICH COULD FALL AS SNOW, MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW (15-25%) IN THE OCCURRENCE AT
THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS/NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...PEARSON
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