272
FXUS63 KOAX 231725
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO USHER A POLAR
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, DROPPING HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR
NEXT WEEK INTO THE 30S AND LOWS INTO THE 10S/LOW 20S.
- SMALL CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEDNESDAY, BUT
LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION TODAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BOOST IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK
FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, CAPPING
HIGHS IN THE 40S OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80, WE SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE 50S BEFORE
THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MODELS HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPRINKLE OR TWO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
FLURRIES AFTER THE COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, HOWEVER MOST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY DRY
PROFILE WILL PREVENT THAT. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE OUTLIERS ARE
CORRECT, PRECIPITATION LIKELY WON'T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
COLDER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE 30S MONDAY AND
LOW 40S TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE OUT OF
THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING PULL THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL SOUTH, OVER KANSAS AND
MISSOURI, THERE IS STILL A SMALL CONTINGENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
(AROUND 30%) THAT BRING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW TO THE FORECAST
AREA, SOUTH OF I-80. CURRENTLY, ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE LOOK
MINIMAL, WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY POTENTIAL
NORTHWARD SHIFT, AS THE PEAK TRAVEL DAYS OF THE HOLIDAY SEASON
APPROACH.
THANKSGIVING DAY AND BEYOND...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH BY THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET, AS A CHILLY AIR MASS PUSHES
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING
DAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID 30S. BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE STUCK IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
FOR HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
LOOKING AHEAD, CPC OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE TO FOR
THE DOWNWARD SPIRAL IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 6 TO 14 DAYS. PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS, ON THE OTHER HAND,
HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT 14 DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
VFR CONDITIONS START OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WAFTING OVERHEAD AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE CURRENTLY. BEGINNING 03-04Z STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD, WITH SPEEDS NEARING 40 KTS AT FL014 WHILE
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NEAR 5 KTS, INTRODUCING LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 09Z. LATER ON THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
VERY CALM WINDS AND AS A RESULT, FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AT KOFK
AND KLNK 10-13Z ONWARD, WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASING
LIKELY AT KOFK, WHILE KLNK IS CURRENTLY PEGGED FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES. IF THE TREND TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
CONTINUES, LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FIND THEIR WAY INTO KOFK
AND POSSIBLY KLNK, WHILE KOMA COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES SNEAK
IN.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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