427
FXUS63 KOAX 232156
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
356 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 AM.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO USHER A POLAR
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, DROPPING HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR
NEXT WEEK INTO THE 30S AND LOWS INTO THE 10S/LOW 20S.
- SMALL CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEDNESDAY, BUT
LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWCASES A BROAD PLUM OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS, WHERE A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS CENTERED WHILE TROUGHS
BUTTRESS EACH SIDE ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. WHILE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE, SURFACE MOISTURE HAS BEEN SCOURED
OUT THROUGH MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH ONLY A SURFACE WARM FRONT
ADORNING THE AREA WHILE MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS HAS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGHS ARE OCCURRING RIGHT NOW WITH THAT POTENT
WARM FRONT ALLOWING HIGHS TO OVERACHIEVE DESPITE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS, WITH THE TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOW-60S EXPECTED TO COOL
OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. EVEN WITH THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS, WE'LL BE EASILY
ABLE TO COOL PAST CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN FAVOR OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER . AS OF RIGHT NOW, NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS WHERE THE THICKEST FOG WILL LIKELY BE, AND
IT COULD REACH AS FAR EAST THE NE/IA BORDER.
TOMORROW MORNING, THE FOG MAY TAKE ITS TIME BEFORE CLEARING AND
THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH MORE TEPID HIGHS
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. ONE OF THE
SURFACE LOWS OVER HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. WELL BEHIND THE FRONT, WILL BE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WHERE SOME CONVECTIVELY-
DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY FLURRIES DEVELOPING
FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA 9 PM TO
MIDNIGHT. NO MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND THE
CHANCES FOR THOSE FLURRIES/LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY SIT AT
ABOUT 10% BUT ARE INCREASING.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
BY THE TIME MONDAY ROLLS AROUND, WE'LL HAVE LEFT THE ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR AS HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
SETTLE IN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE JET STREAM WILL BE
MIGRATING SOUTHWARD WHILE STAYING LARGELY ZONAL WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION COMING WEDNESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE
AREA, AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS OK AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THE MOST DYNAMIC DEEPENING AND OVERALL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND AS OF RIGHT NOW LEAVES THE MORE POTENT
INGREDIENTS OF LIFT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, WE ARE STILL CARRYING 15-30% CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AFTER THAT,
OUR COOLEST AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE NE/IA REGION, AND LOWS
COULD FIND THEIR WAY INTO THE MID-TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2024
VFR CONDITIONS START OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WAFTING OVERHEAD AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE CURRENTLY. BEGINNING 03-04Z STRONG WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERHEAD, WITH SPEEDS NEARING 40 KTS AT FL014 WHILE
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NEAR 5 KTS, INTRODUCING LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH 09Z. LATER ON THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
VERY CALM WINDS AND AS A RESULT, FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AT KOFK
AND KLNK 10-13Z ONWARD, WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING INCREASING
LIKELY AT KOFK, WHILE KLNK IS CURRENTLY PEGGED FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES. IF THE TREND TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
CONTINUES, LIFR CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FIND THEIR WAY INTO KOFK
AND POSSIBLY KLNK, WHILE KOMA COULD SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES SNEAK
IN.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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