680
FXUS63 KOAX 201710
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1110 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TODAY. MORNING-COMMUTE WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AT MANY LOCATIONS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.
- WARMING THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- SMALL (20-30%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY, DECEMBER 26TH.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN WITH A FEW SNOW
FLAKES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
TODAY...
THE PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY HAS USHERED A SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 1 AM WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM 5 TO -9 (AT NORFOLK). GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUNRISE WITH SIMILAR WIND
CHILL READINGS EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. WE WON'T SEE A
WHOLE LOT OF TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY, DUE IN PART TO SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS, WITH FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.
THIS WEEKEND...
WESTERN U.S. RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN WHILE SPREADING EAST INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS; LARGELY DUE TO THE PROGRESSION OF A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE,
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY WITH THAT BOUNDARY ADVANCING INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT SURFACE PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND 40S TO PERHAPS LOW 50S ON
SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...
THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. IN THE CHRISTMAS EVE-CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM LIKELY REMAINING
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE INITIAL TROUGH; HOWEVER, ITS
TRACK COULD END UP FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE US A SHOT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FORECAST
UPDATE WILL INDICATE 20-30% POPS DURING THAT PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY
LIGHT RAIN. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS LARGELY IN THE
40S. WE COULD SEE SOME 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD
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