144
FXUS63 KOAX 202324
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
524 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- SMALL 20% PRECIPITATION CHANCES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. FORECAST TEMPERATURES SUPPORT RAIN AT THIS TIME.
- THE WINTER SOLSTICE, OR THE ASTRONOMICAL BEGINNING OF WINTER,
BEGINS TONIGHT AT 321 CST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
QUIET WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE IS A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THUS
ONLY EXPECTING SOME BROKEN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS AND NO
PRECIPITATION.
THOSE WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW HELP PUSH READINGS BACK TO
NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. SUBSTANTIAL WARMING SHOULD
BRING HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY, AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MONDAY.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD STILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S, BUT STILL NO PRECIPITATION,
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MODEL DO HAVE A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION DURING THE HOLIDAY, BUT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO SUGGEST ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S, IT'S LIKELY RAIN IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS. AND WHEN THE
FINAL PIECE OF THAT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, IT COULD
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 20% CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S, AND HIGHS FRIDAY
FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50.
THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A VERY HIGH CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, SO THE MILD WINTER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WE
ROLL INTO THE NEW YEAR. THE ECMWF EXTENDED ENSEMBLE DOES SUGGEST
THAT ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH MIGHT BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE
FIRST WEEK OF THE 2025, BUT STILL NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION THAT FAR OUT. THE DROUGHT CONTINUES, WITH NO REAL
MEANINGFUL RELIEF IN SIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
TAF FORECAST IS BASED ON WINDS ONLY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS PICK UP THE PACE MID-
MORNING. THEY'LL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A BROKEN
DECK AT FL010 WILL BE IMPACTING KOMA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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