790
FXUS63 KOAX 211717
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1117 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- SMALL (20%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
TODAY AND SUNDAY...
A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TODAY AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ADVANCING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST
TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
WILL BUILD EAST TODAY AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NE-SD BORDER WITH A TRAILING COOL FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH
OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODEST WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
(COMPARED TO FRIDAY) WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. BY TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, MORE ROBUST WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED WARMING TREND.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD BE TEMPERED TO SOME EXTENT BY INCREASING
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER, THE EXPECTED SURFACE PATTERN
TYPICALLY MAXIMIZES HEATING POTENTIAL. SO, THIS FORECAST UPDATE
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER, BIAS-CORRECTED MODELS, WHICH
INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
NEXT WEEK...
THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT-WAVE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. IN THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THAT SYSTEM WILL BE LOOSELY PHASED
WITH A POLAR-BRANCH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ATTENDANT TO THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
WITH THE FORECAST REMAINING DRY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. FROM
CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THURSDAY, THE MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY,
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS DAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 20-30% POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BEING ON THURSDAY. IF WE DO SEE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD
MIX WITH RAIN. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. GIVEN THESE EXPECTATIONS, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. WE COULD SEE SOME LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST
NE ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12-14KT WITH GUSTS 14-16KT ARE
EXPECTED AT KOFK TODAY, AND AT KOMA, KLNK AND KOFK ON SUNDAY
AFTER 16Z. INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AT FL020-FL030 BETWEEN 12-18Z
ON SUNDAY WILL CREATE SHEAR OF 25-35KT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
2K AGL.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FORTIN
AVIATION...KG
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