821
FXUS63 KOAX 221112
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
512 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
- INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE WARM WEATHER WILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN
WITH NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY, AND INTO THE UPPER MS AND MID MO VALLEYS BY
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OVER EASTERN MT
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST TODAY, REACHING THE
THE SOUTHEAST SD-NORTHEAST NE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A TRAILING,
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA.
THE MODELS INDICATE STRONG WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE
MID MO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, ATOP A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION. WITH THE ONSET OF DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING LATER
THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, THAT WARMER AIR WILL REACH THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY ENDING UP ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE, DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. THIS FORECAST UPDATE WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL ALSO TRANSFER STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE DRIER, LOW-LEVEL AIR OVER NORTHEAST
NE, LIMITING RANGELAND FIRE DANGER TO THE MODERATE TO HIGH
CATEGORIES.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH WINDS SWITCHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST WITH IT'S PASSAGE.
MONDAY AND CHRISTMAS EVE...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD REMAINING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S ON MONDAY, AND MAINLY IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS DAY (WED) NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE MODELS INDICATE YET
ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THE
FORMER. SPECIFIC DETAILS LIKE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE
WEATHER SYSTEMS VARIES ACROSS THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER, WHAT WE CAN SAY IS THAT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING AT SOME POINT IN
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. AND, THAT IS
REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OF
30-40% FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(20-30% POPS) REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST WILL INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS
HAVE A FEW MEMBERS THAT SHOW MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
FRIDAY-SATURDAY SYSTEM, SO THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL BE WATCHING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AT AROUND 10-14 KTS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND
00Z THIS EVENING, WHEN WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND WEAKEN. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, MAINLY AT OMA AND
LNK BETWEEN 00-03Z THIS EVENING, HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WIND SPEEDS REACHING CRITERIA REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...KG
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