217
FXUS63 KOAX 230328
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
928 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES (40S AND LOW 50S) AND DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN TO OUR AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, SO
A FEW SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED AND ELEVATED
SURFACES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN AS
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR AREA BEGINNING
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE, THESE DISTURBANCES WILL MANIFEST
THEMSELVES AS PERIODS OF CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH GRADUALLY DROPPING HEADING THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY, WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BY THURSDAY, A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS THIS TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES.
REGARDLESS, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF US-30 (30-50 PERCENT). A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-80.
AFTER THURSDAY, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY COMPLEX,
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TOGETHER, WITH COMPLEX EVOLUTIONS DUE TO VARIOUS COMPETING
DYNAMIC EFFECTS. AS A RESULT, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE END OF WEEK STORM SYSTEM BEYOND
THURSDAY. NONETHELESS, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE COMPETING
EFFECTS OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ON
THE WEAKER SIDE AS THE THURSDAY SYSTEM BECOMES CUT-OFF. AS A
RESULT, CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 40S) WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE DISTURBANCE LINGERS IN THE
REGION, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING AND SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP ON ELEVATED AND
UNTREATED SURFACES EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (NORTH OF US-30, WEST OF US-75), AS NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TO START
THE PERIOD AND WILL GRADUALLY TURN CLOCKWISE, BECOMING NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS
LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS. A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE HINT AT
FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD, BUT CONSENSUS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DARRAH
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page