433
FXUS63 KOAX 231734
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE (40-50% POPS) THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN. RAIN COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS, WHERE A
FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED AND ELEVATED
SURFACES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY TODAY, WHILE AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND
40 ALONG THE SD BORDER TO 50 OR THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF OUR AREA.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE INTO
TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID MO
VALLEY TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BETTER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
PROXIMITY OF A STRONGER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. MORNING FOG AND
LINGERING CLOUDS COULD SLOW DAYTIME HEATING ON TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE A
BIT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THAT SYSTEM PHASING WITH AN UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A POTENTIAL THIRD SYSTEM COULD FOLLOW THE TRACK OF THE
PREVIOUS TWO THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THIS FORECAST UPDATE HAS
BACKED OFF ON POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) NOW EXISTING FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. POPS SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASE FROM LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MENTIONED ABOVE, SO THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND LATER THIS WEEK. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. IN FACT, THIS FORECAST HAS
TRENDED WARMER DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE HIGHEST POPS EXIST
WITH RAIN EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX
WITH THE RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS IN NORTHEAST NE WHERE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THAT COULD
LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY. WE'RE
CLOSELY MONITORING LOW STRATUS INCHING SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER, BUT THAT "SHOULD" BREAK UP BEFORE REACHING KOMA. MAY NEED
TO ADD A SHORT TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT IF IT DOES
ARRIVE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EXPANDING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WE'LL HAVE STRATUS SPREADING SOUTH OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA TOO WHICH HAS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WELL
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO THE
TAFS AS CURRENT TRENDS LEAN MORE TOWARD STRATUS OCCURRING THAN
NOT RIGHT NOW (60% CHANCE). IF WE DO GET WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS,
IT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING, CLEARING FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MCCOY
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