856
FXUS63 KOAX 232101
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 PM CST MON DEC 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT - 10 AM TUESDAY FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 15.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES (40-50% POPS) THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.
- MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON DEC 23 2024
SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA WHILE LOW CLOUDS SKIRT OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD, AROUND 42-53
DEGREES. LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, WE HAVE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WITH A TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THIS RIDGE CENTERS OVER OUR AREA, CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSTANTIAL FOG EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 15. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY. WE
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE DENSE FOG AS FAR EAST AS LINCOLN, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. WE COULD SEE THIS EXTENDED AS FOG STARTS TO
DEVELOP.
ON TUESDAY WE SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTED OUT OF THE ALEUTIAN
LOW MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S IN AREAS
WITH CLOUD COVER THAT HANGS AROUND TO MID 40S IN AREAS WEST
WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON.
WE SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY ACTIVE, MERIDIONAL WAVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS MIDWEEK. WHILE MILD, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, OUR FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN A WHILE ARRIVES EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THURSDAY
WE SEE THE PRE-WARM FRONT ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATE SOME LIGHT,
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE SYSTEM ARRIVES WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND MOVING RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A GREAT SET-UP FOR SUBSTANTIAL
SNOW, TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE MUCH TOO MILD FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN RAIN. RAIN CHANCES EXIT THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
A WETTER PATTERN IS SETTING UP THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW ALLOWING FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGHS TO MOVE INTO THE CONUS. WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY
MILD OVER THE WEEKEND, A COOL-DOWN BACK TOWARD NORMAL APPEARS
LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING BACK
CHANCES FOR ICE AND SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY. WE'RE
CLOSELY MONITORING LOW STRATUS INCHING SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER, BUT THAT "SHOULD" BREAK UP BEFORE REACHING KOMA. MAY NEED
TO ADD A SHORT TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT IF IT DOES
ARRIVE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN FOG OR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EXPANDING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WE'LL HAVE STRATUS SPREADING SOUTH OUT OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA TOO WHICH HAS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WELL
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED MVFR/IFR STRATUS TO THE
TAFS AS CURRENT TRENDS LEAN MORE TOWARD STRATUS OCCURRING THAN
NOT RIGHT NOW (60% CHANCE). IF WE DO GET WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS,
IT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING, CLEARING FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042-043-050-065-078-088.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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