281
FXUS63 KOAX 241128
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 10 AM TUESDAY FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 15.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. BEST CHANCES (40-50% POPS) THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOULD BE ALL RAIN/DRIZZLE.
- MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
BACK DOWN TOWARD NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2024
TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...
FOG SETTLED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT, WITH VISIBILITIES
DROPPING BELOW 1/4 MILE WEST OF A LINE FROM NELIGH TO UTICA BY 2
AM. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS REGION UNTIL 10 AM
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH TODAY, AS A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
SANTA WILL LIKELY NEED TO GEAR UP RUDOLPH TONIGHT, AS FOG REDEVELOPS
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA, PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN CHRISTMAS DAY, AFTER THE FOG CLEARS OUT IN THE
LATE MORNING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
OUR FIRST REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY, IN AN
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A LOW MOVING
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS AS TO THE EXACT TIMING AND
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WE WILL GET OUT OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP, MOSTLY LIKELY DRIZZLE,
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. LUCKILY WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD PREVENT
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES, KEEPING PRECIPITATION TYPES AS EITHER
DRIZZLE OR RAIN. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
MID 40S AGAIN THURSDAY, AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MANY
LONG RANGE MODELS HINTING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES FINALLY DIVING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS AS WE APPROACH THE NEW YEAR. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT,
WE COULD SEE SOME MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND ICE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2024
AS OF 5 AM, TERMINAL CATEGORIES RANGED FROM LIFR AT KOFK TO IFR
AND KLNK TO MVFR AT KOMA. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES KOMA
TRANSITIONING TO IFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR, AND KLNK DOWN TO LIFR
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE MODELS SUGGEST GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
NUMBER OF MODELS DO SHOW THE STRATUS PERSISTING WITH PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AT KOMA AND
KLNK, DETERIORATING TO IFR BY ABOUT 25/06Z. THIS FORECAST UPDATE
WILL TRANSITION KOFK TO PREVAILING VFR BY 21Z. HOWEVER, SIMILAR
TO KOMA AND KLNK, SOME MODELS INDICATE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT THERE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SWITCH
TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
016>018-030>032-042-043-050-065-078-088.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...MEAD
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