628
FXUS63 KOAX 242254
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
454 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING, MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHOULD BE ALL DRIZZLE/RAIN WITH NO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH
EXPECTED.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND
THIS COULD BE A SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2024
THE STRATUS HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LINGERING HAZE/FOG WITH VISIBILITIES STILL IN THE 2 TO 5 MILE
RANGE AT 3PM. AND THAT'S THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT, THAT THE
STRATUS WILL SETTLE INTO A WIDESPREAD AREA OF DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RUDOLPH IS CERTAINLY GOING TO EARN HIS HAY
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S, AND
WHILE WE'RE NOT FORECASTING ANY SNOW, THERE COULD BE SOME THICK
FROST GIVING THE LANDSCAPE A WHITE APPEARANCE BY DAYBREAK. IT
WILL BE HAVE TO GOOD ENOUGH FOR THOSE HOPING FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS. THE FOG REALLY BEGINS TO THICKEN BY MIDNIGHT, AND
LINGERS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THUS, AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES, WE HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THAT TIME.
STRATUS AND FOG CAN OFTEN BE PERSISTENT IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S.
THE STRATUS REDEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN. AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DENSE FOG COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST IA. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE'LL NEED ANOTHER DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR SOME AREAS THAT NIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER, FROM 30 TO 35. IT'S ALSO AT THIS TIME
THAT THE NEXT CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA, WE COULD ALSO SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE
OR SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP SOUTH OF I80 BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT
IT'S ALSO IN THIS SAME AREA THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING, THUS ONLY RAIN EXPECTED.
CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY/RAIN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE
FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S, WITH LITTLE TO NO HOPE FOR ANY SUNSHINE
EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
AND THEN THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, BRINING MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SO AGAIN, THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD ALL COME IN THE
FORM OF RAIN WITH NO SNOW AT ALL. THE RAIN CHANCES MOVE OUT BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER PRETTY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AND WE SHOULD
CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY, AND HIGHS
AGAIN VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO
AVERAGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.25 OF AN INCH. CERTAINLY NOT DROUGHT
BUSTING MOISTURE, BUT GIVEN THAT THE GROUND ISN'T FROZEN DUE TO
THE RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES, IT SHOULD ALL SOAK IN WHICH WILL
BE HELPFUL.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGS A COOLING TREND. THE MODELS DO SHOW
ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES, WITH THE EC SHOWING MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION CHANCE THAN THE GFS, AS IT'S SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST THAT
FAR OUT IS LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. HIGHS ON MONDAY STILL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S, BUT A LITTLE COOLER
THAN THE WEEKEND. AND THEN HIGHS NEXT TUESDAY ON NEW YEARS EVE
ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE 20-30% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY-TUESDAY COMES IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SNOW,
BUT AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NEW YEARS DAY IS LOOKING DRY AND
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 454 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2024
MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER-DOING CLOUD COVER AND SO HAVE
GONE VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TAF FORECASTS FOR THIS PACKAGE.
SEEMS LIKELY WE'LL SEE THE CURRENT LOW STRATUS SINK TO THE
GROUND THIS EVENING WITH VIS DROPPING TO 1/2-1/4 SM AT THE
TERMINALS. WE'LL SEE LIFR CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 16-17Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RUDOLPH WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED FOR
SANTA'S SLEIGH TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT, WITH A 70% CHANCE WE KEEP IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE, WE MAY SEE CIGS
LIFT TO 1200 FT (30% CHANCE) AROUND 19-21Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
078-088>093.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...MCCOY
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