620
FXUS63 KOAX 251109
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
509 AM CST WED DEC 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH NOON
TODAY.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHOULD BE ALL DRIZZLE/RAIN WITH NO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH
EXPECTED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD BE A SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE,
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED DEC 25 2024
OVERNIGHT AND TODAY...
LAST NIGHT WAS THE MOMENT RUDOLPH TRAINED FOR. DENSE FOG THICKENED
OVERNIGHT, WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING UNDER A MILE ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING AS OF
2 AM, MEANING THERE MAY BE SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED
SURFACES THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON TODAY FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON TODAY, HOWEVER
PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF FOG AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, PULLING VISIBILITIES
UNDER 1/2 A MILE ONCE MORE. TEMPERATURES FALLING JUST UNDER FREEZING
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS WITH THE FOG NORTH OF I-80 BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE FOG, WE COULD SEE A BIT OF
DRIZZLE DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA, IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTH OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THANKFULLY
THOUGH, LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80,
KEEPING ANY EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN A LIQUID STATE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY,
AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WARM AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING, AND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
FRIDAY, PREVENTING ANY RAIN FROM TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OR ICE.
THE RAIN CHANCES MOVE OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WE END THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY, AND HIGHS AGAIN VERY MILD IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
AVERAGING AROUND .05" TO .25". BUT AT THIS POINT, ANY LITTLE BIT IS
BETTER THAN NOTHING.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY NEW
YEARS EVE, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, AND
OVERALL TYPE AND LOCATION PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT,
THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST WED DEC 25 2024
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL
DRIVE THE FLIGHT CATEGORY AS VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO 5 TO 6SM BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN
TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 11KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...MEAD
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