107
FXUS63 KOAX 251725
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1125 AM CST WED DEC 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH NOON
TODAY.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SHOULD BE ALL DRIZZLE/RAIN WITH NO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH
EXPECTED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD BE A SNOW/RAIN MIXTURE,
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED DEC 25 2024
WE CLEARED OUT SOME COUNTIES OUT OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT
MID MORNING, AND WILL LET MOST OF THE REMAINDER EXPIRE AT NOON.
WE DID HOWEVER EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY 1 MORE HOUR FOR A
HANDFUL OF COUNTIES BETWEEN LINCOLN AND YORK WHERE WEBCAMS SHOW
DENSE FOG STILL CONTINUES.
AND, LOOKING AT THE NEW FORECAST, WE'RE EXPECTING DENSE FOG TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE OVERNIGHT, THUS
ANTICIPATE WE'LL NEED ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MANY COUNTIES, MOST LIKELY TIME WOULD BE 8PM THROUGH
NOON ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST WED DEC 25 2024
OVERNIGHT AND TODAY...
LAST NIGHT WAS THE MOMENT RUDOLPH TRAINED FOR. DENSE FOG THICKENED
OVERNIGHT, WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING UNDER A MILE ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING AS OF
2 AM, MEANING THERE MAY BE SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED
SURFACES THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL NOON TODAY FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BETWEEN 10 AM AND NOON TODAY, HOWEVER
PATCHY FOG COULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF FOG AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, PULLING VISIBILITIES
UNDER 1/2 A MILE ONCE MORE. TEMPERATURES FALLING JUST UNDER FREEZING
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS WITH THE FOG NORTH OF I-80 BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE FOG, WE COULD SEE A BIT OF
DRIZZLE DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA, IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTH OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THANKFULLY
THOUGH, LOWS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80,
KEEPING ANY EARLY MORNING DRIZZLE IN A LIQUID STATE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY,
AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WARM AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING, AND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
FRIDAY, PREVENTING ANY RAIN FROM TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OR ICE.
THE RAIN CHANCES MOVE OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WE END THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY, AND HIGHS AGAIN VERY MILD IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
AVERAGING AROUND .05" TO .25". BUT AT THIS POINT, ANY LITTLE BIT IS
BETTER THAN NOTHING.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY NEW
YEARS EVE, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, AND
OVERALL TYPE AND LOCATION PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT,
THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRENDS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED DEC 25 2024
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO HOPE IN
SITE FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN 500 OR LESS.
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AT KOFK/KLNK WITH
VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE AGAIN BY 04-06Z. WILL
ONLY DROP VISIBILITY TO 1 MILE AT KOMA AT THIS TIME. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DO REMAIN AT FREEZING OR ABOVE AT KOMA/KLNK SO IF
THERE'S ANY DRIZZLE INT THERE, WIDESPREAD FREEZING SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING AT KOFK, THUS
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON THE RUNWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ016-017-030>033-
042>045-051-066-088-089-092-093.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...DEWALD
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...DEWALD
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