724
FXUS63 KOAX 252321
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
521 PM CST WED DEC 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
NE FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE ALL DRIZZLE/RAIN WITH NO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH
EXPECTED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND THIS COMES AS A SNOW AND RAIN
MIXTURE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED DEC 25 2024
AS EXPECTED, THE FOG AND STRATUS HAVE HELD STRONG TODAY, AND
WE'VE HAD LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE 30S. THERE REMAINS PATCHY FOG/HAZE ACROSS SOME
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS STRATUS DECK WILL PROBABLY DESCEND BACK TO
AREAS OF SURFACE FOG THIS EVENING, BECOMING DENSE AGAIN ACROSS
EASTERN NE. THUS, HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT, BEGINNING AT EITHER 7 OR 8 PM, DEPENDING ON LOCATION,
AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AND WHILE
THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA, BELIEVE ANY FOG
THERE WOULDN'T BE DENSE.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE INCOMING CLOSED LOW NOW MOVING OUT OF THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BEING MOVING
INTO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AFTER MIDNIGHT, RESULTING IN
AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE DENSE FOG. FORTUNATELY,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING, BUT WITH THE DENSE FOG AND TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
FREEZING IN NORTHEAST NE, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS.
THE FIRST PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT LITTLE MEASURABLE QPF
EXPECTED, BUT THE PERSIST DRIZZLE COULD ADD UP TO A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO AT SOME SPOTS. IT IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW IN THE LOWER 40S.
THE FOG COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF WE'D NEED YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY, THE 4TH
NIGHT IN A ROW FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THERE MAY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH IN SOUTHWEST IA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE. WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING, ONLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE SECOND PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, AND THEN EXITS TO THE EAST BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA, AND
THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAIN BEFORE
IT ALL ENDS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT'S NOT A LOT OF RAIN, BUT THE GROUND
ALSO ISN'T FROZEN, SO IT ALL SHOULD EASILY GO INTO THE SUBSOIL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE 40S FOR ALL
AREAS.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. READINGS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. IT WILL BE NICE TO NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FOG AND
FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE AGAIN.
MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY, AFFECTING OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, AND
EXITING BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. POPS DO INCREASE TO 40-60% DURING
THIS TIME, AND IT WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN, BUT HIGHS
ARE STILL FORECAST MONDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S, SO EVEN
THE SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN INCH IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. BUT IT'S A SYSTEM WE'LL DEFINITELY BE WATCHING.
AND THEN DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 25 2024
MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FOG
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. LIFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN
PLACE AT KOFK AND EXPECTED TO STAY UNTIL AT LEAST 18-19Z. LIFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KOMA BY 02-05Z AND KLNK BY 01-03Z,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG
WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY UNDER 1 MILE EXPECTED AT KOFK/KLNK BY 03-04Z AND KOMA
BY 10-13Z (LOWER CONFIDENCE). GRADUAL VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 16-19Z, THOUGH WILL STRUGGLE TO IMPROVE ABOVE
4SM. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE (15% CHANCE) AT
KOMA/KLNK AFTER 10Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ012-015-017-
018-033-034-044-045-051>053-066>068-089>093.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ016-030>032-
042-043-050-065-078-088.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...WOOD
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