948
FXUS63 KOAX 261117
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
517 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
NE FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE ALL DRIZZLE/RAIN WITH NO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. QPF AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/4 INCH
EXPECTED.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DESPITE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW VISIBILITIES WERE IMMINENT
LAST NIGHT, MOST METAR SITES EAST OF A WAYNE TO LINCOLN, NE LINE
HELD ONTO AT LEAST 3 SM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY 2 AM VISIBILITIES HAD
FINALLY BEGUN TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THESE EASTERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES,
THEREFORE DECIDED TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO CONTINUE TO RIDE
THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES FALLING JUST UNDER FREEZING COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS WITH THE FOG IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FOG, PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, IN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THANKFULLY, TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL KEEP ANY DRIZZLE IN A LIQUID STATE.
PATCHY DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH PATCHY FOG REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
EVENTUALLY, DRIZZLE TRANSITIONS TO RAIN SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY, AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WARM AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING, AND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR FRIDAY,
PREVENTING ANY RAIN FROM TRANSITIONING TO SNOW OR ICE.
THE RAIN CHANCES MOVE OUT SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AVERAGING AROUND .05" TO
.25". SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WE END THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY, AND HIGHS AGAIN VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TREND FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE
DELAYED A BIT WITH THE LATEST RUNS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
40S AND LOW 50S AGAIN MONDAY. BY NEW YEARS EVE, TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP CLOSER TO NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SORT OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT
COULD FAVOR A BIT MORE RAIN THAN SNOW WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
COLD TEMPERATURES. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING, PRECIPITATION
TYPE, AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION STILL REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CURRENT IFR CEILINGS AT KOMA AND KLNK ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO LIFR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE RECOVERING
BACK TO IFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A
RETURN TO PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THIS
EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 15Z
BEFORE IMPROVING FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE; ALL OF WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-11KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...MEAD
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