998
FXUS63 KOAX 240919
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
319 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY REACHING THE 30S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S.
- CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW SYSTEM ARE ON THE RISE FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK, WITH DETAILS BECOMING MORE CLEAR AS IT
APPROACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR CIRROSTRATUS TO SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG
IN SOUTHWEST IOWA, BUT VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 MILES.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND WILL HELP PROGRESS A MERIDIONAL WARM FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THE NET RESULT IS
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY. NBM MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
HREF MEMBERS 90 PERCENTILE. LIKELY DIFFERENCE IS SPREAD IN THE
AMOUNT OF MIXING THAT WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF CLOUD COVER.
WILL LEAN TOWARD NBM MODE.
JET CORE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH MID-LEVEL,
SATURATED LIFT OCCURRING. HREF AND NBM INDICATING A SPREAD IN
LOWEST CEILINGS, ANYWHERE BETWEEN 5K TO 11K AGL. WHILE IT MAY BE
POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP, THE LARGE DEPTH OF DRY
LIKELY WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO EVAPORATE OR SUBLIMATE BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE, THUS WILL KEEP POP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO 20S.
SATURDAY:
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTI-CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF
THE JET WHICH EVEN THOUGH LOWER CLOUD BASES WILL PERSIST, THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES REMAINS LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE SEEN FRIDAY WITH 30S
COMMON ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT, COUPLED WITH CLEARING
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TUMBLE IN DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. NBM, GEFS AND ENS DIFFERING ON HOW COLD, WITH A
BI-MODAL DISTRIBUTION, WITH ENS MEMBERS AVERAGING 5 DEGREES
COLDER. WILL TREND TOWARD 25 PERCENTILE OF NBM VALUES, WHICH
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
AN ELONGATED LATITUDNAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.,
WITH SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
SURFACE HIGH SINKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SUNDAY BECOMING MORE WEST- SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ONCE
AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE PASSAGE OF NORTHEAST U.S. JET/TROUGH ALLOWS AFOREMENTION
ELONGATED WESTERN U.S. TROUGH TO DIG INTO SOUTHWEST U.S., THEN
EJECTS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE STARK DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS/CMC AND EC, WITH THE EC BEING FAR
MORE PROGRESSIVE. GEFS, ENS AND GEPS CLUSTERING ARE TRENDING
TOWARD OPERATIONAL EC SOLUTION, AND APPARENTLY NBM AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CURRENTLY
PRECIPITATION TYPE FAVORING A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION, WITH
POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS AT TAF ISSUANCE, BUT INCREASING TO 12
KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTHWEST, AND THEN WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FORTIN
AVIATION...DEWALD
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